• Sweden edition
 
Swedish weather 'hard to predict': forecaster

Swedish weather 'hard to predict': forecaster

Published: 10 Aug 2011 15:50 GMT+02:00
Updated: 10 Aug 2011 15:50 GMT+02:00

Rain showers, followed by bouts of sunshine, followed by ominous looking skies – this summer it’s been extra difficult to predict Sweden's weather and thus meet government targets for forecasting accuracy.

Fredrik Linde, head of forecasts at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), told Sveriges Radio (SR) that it is always more difficult to predict the weather during the summer as the cloud build-up is faster and can rapidly produce rain and thunder storms. But this year it has apparently been especially difficult.

“During June and July we have had fairly unstable weather as we have been positioned in a zone between cooler air in the west and warmer in the east. This has meant a lot of thunder and showers and we have found it hard to predict their movements,” said Linde to SR

Earlier this spring, the government unleashed a swell of frustration over inaccurate weather forecasts, and environment minister Andreas Carlgren demanded improvements from meteorologists at the state-owned institute.

Last year every sixth full-day forecast was wrong, well below the agreed rate for good quality.

Meteorologists also missed 33 percent of gale warnings in 2010 compared with 22 percent in 2008.

The state subsequently ruled that at least 85 percent of forecasts in one year must be accurate. Sweden, it was decided, needed better weather.

To meet the 85 percent target, SMHI General Director Lena Pour pledged to invest in more accurate information.

“Given that we did not reach our goals I have issued a mandate to those who make the forecasts that they actually have to improve the quality," she said to TT at the time.

So far this year, the institute has been right in 83 percent of their forecasts. Only looking at the summer months the number of accurate forecasts have been a little worse.

But Linde told SR that he believes the institute will have reached the target by the end of the year, despite the accuracy rate actually worsening recently.

“The last two years have seen very cold and snowy winters, which has kept us steadily at 83 percent. Before that we saw a very positive trend for several years but the unstable weather with showers and cold winters have been difficult to forecast,” Linde told SR.

SMHI announced earlier this summer the planned acquisition of a new super computer, named "Byvind", to replace the old "Bore" system - one of the innovations hoped to enable SMHI to reach their target of accuracy.

According to SMHI IT manager Håkan Borg, the new computer venture is just the first step in the development of a better service from SMHI.

The next phase will entail a cooperation between Swedish weather services and its Norwegian counterpart. According to Borg, they will join forces and pool IT resources to a joint and even more powerful super computer serving the needs of the two countries.

“We are counting on having finished this in 2014 and will then start looking into a possible cooperation with the other Nordic countries,” Borg told trade paper Computer Sweden in July.

SMHI is a government agency under the Ministry of the Environment and offers services such as general forecasts and weather warnings, simulations and analyses, statistics, climate studies and contracted research among others.

The Local/rm (news@thelocal.se)

Don't miss...X
Left Right

Your comments about this article

17:10 August 10, 2011 by conboy
I think Swedish women are more predictable than Swedish weather discuss!
17:35 August 10, 2011 by andyron2
When i first landed in sweden few yrs ago,heard people say that swedish women and swedish weather are both unpredictable.I agree with you conboy.women slightly predictable now.
19:01 August 10, 2011 by J. L. Belmar
Fortunately, the government will keep on fighting climate change, but not women change, because as andyron2 and conboy wrote, they are more predictable now, so why fighting them? No fuss with me.
19:36 August 10, 2011 by johan rebel
SMHI doesn't even provide forecasts for where I live, and yes, I do live in Sweden! Much better to ignore SMHI completely (except for statistics and after-the-facts reports). Satellite, radar and other images on the DMI and YR sites, as well as some meteorological knowledge and a modicum of common sense are more than sufficient to reliably predict your own local weather if you live in southern Sweden.
20:01 August 10, 2011 by rfmann
Seriously, what's so difficult to predict about the weather here? Here is my "prediction", for any day of the year: crap, too cold, high chance of precipitation. I estimate that's pretty darn accurate 90% of the time. Now as far as women are concerned...
20:32 August 10, 2011 by victzie
that is thesame thing with swedish women,they are like the weather and they don't know what they want.their men cannot cope with them,so they go for thai respected women,who knows a man should be a man and woman a woman.
21:26 August 10, 2011 by J. L. Belmar
Hey fellows. You enjoy the rain and I will try to remember how to enjoy a woman, regardless of her nationality. So join me:

I'm singing in the rain

Just singing in the rain

What a glorious feelin'

I'm happy again

I'm laughing at clouds

So dark up above

The sun's in my heart

And I'm ready for love

Let the stormy clouds chase

Everyone from the place

Come on with the rain

I've a smile on my face

I walk down the lane

With a happy refrain

Just singin',

Singin' in the rain
22:04 August 10, 2011 by J Jack
if they just broadcast a decent doppler radar in real time we can all see what the weather is doing whenever we need .. smhi is just a school for meteo's and in summer most of them go on semester .. just admit you're all working off history models. bore system my ass
01:44 August 11, 2011 by Daveo
I get my Swedish weather from the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
02:28 August 11, 2011 by bira
Really? More so than anywhere else...deserts excluded.
07:38 August 11, 2011 by mamegoma
I agree with rfmann.
09:53 August 11, 2011 by andyron2
@ J.L Belmar

Enjooyed the Rain.At first ,I thought those were your own lyrics:)
10:45 August 11, 2011 by conboy
Thank you Belmar you are a fount of wisdom !!!!
10:51 August 11, 2011 by countrysidedrive
The weather forcasting in Sweden has not been good for a very long time. I gave up even looking at the weather reports from Sweden a long time ago because they were not helpful or accurate most of the time. When every day on the forcast says it will be sunny, cloudy or rainy and then one day it is sunny and another day it is cloudy and another day its rainy and another day a little of everything is not a forcast.

Since the weather forcasting is so innacurate the following ideas would greatly help the public in assessing the weather themselves.

1- Live dopler radar

2- Live cloud movement radar

3- Live wind map

All to be available online.
15:11 August 11, 2011 by conboy
Or the old hand out the window technique
15:46 August 11, 2011 by andyron2
I think animals can do a good job.If only their behaviour is studied more. Its proved dogs,groundhogs,frogs,roosters,pigs,rats,...can all predict the coming of bad weather.I have my doubts they can predict swedish weather though...hehe....may be they would have their 6th sense shattered......remember an old saying...rats desert a sinking ship...but still time to do more research on them,rather spending millions on SMHI n super computers.give them a chance.
16:39 August 11, 2011 by J. L. Belmar
15:46 August 11, 2011 by andyron2

No one can predict the weather in Sweden, because we have to start with the fact that it is a not predictable country.

Some one to join me in the fight against climate change?
Today's headlines
Ikea to introduce 'green' vegetarian meatballs

Ikea to introduce 'green' vegetarian meatballs

Swedish furniture giant Ikea is planning to put vegetarian meatballs on the menu in an attempt to cut down on its carbon footprint, the company has announced. READ () »

Students to keep paying off debt beyond 67

Students to keep paying off debt beyond 67

The Swedish government has proposed scrapping the 25-year span for repaying student loans, by suggesting those who attend higher education should keep paying the money back well into retirement. READ () »

Drowned puppies found in crayfish cage
The crayfish cage in the picture is not the one mentioned in the story. Photo: Christine Olsson/TT

Drowned puppies found in crayfish cage

Police in eastern Sweden have launched a preliminary investigation of animal cruelty after two puppies were found drowned in a crayfish cage. READ () »

Three rescued after cruise ship sinks boat
Rickard Rundgren Björk of the coastguard services speaks to the media after the rescue operation on April 19th 2014. Photo: Maja Suslin /TT

Three rescued after cruise ship sinks boat

Three Saturday morning sailors had a lucky escape after their small boat collided and sank after it crashed into a cruise ship whilst sailing in the Stockholm archipelago. READ () »

Missing Swede found alive and well in UK
Sofie Marie Jansson. Photo: Metropolitan Police

Missing Swede found alive and well in UK

British police have found the missing Swedish girl Sofie Jansson in London, exactly a week after she was last seen, with authorities saying she is doing well. READ () »

Social Democrats make tax pledge to elderly

Social Democrats make tax pledge to elderly

Sweden's opposition party has stepped up its efforts to secure the pensioner vote by pledging to lower taxes for the elderly and make higher earners pay more. READ () »

Malmö Nazi attack victim on the mend
Showan Shattak pictured in Malmö before his attack. Photo: Facebook

Malmö Nazi attack victim on the mend

The 25-year-old man, whose stabbing by neo-Nazis sparked mass demonstrations across Sweden, has made a strong recovery in hospital and took to social media to thank supporters for campaigning against fascism. READ () »

Police seeking missing Swede in London

British police have issued a plea for tips in the search to find Swedish national Sofie Marie Jansson who hasn't been seen for almost a week. READ () »

University applications rocket to record high

University applications rocket to record high

Swedish universities continue to draw vast amounts of applicants with the number of prospective students seeking a third level education increasing for the seventh year in a row. READ () »

Man jailed in US over Lars Vilks murder plot
Swedish artist Lars Vilks pictured in New York in 2012. Photo: Linus Sundahl-Djerf/TT

Man jailed in US over Lars Vilks murder plot

American authorities have sentenced a 20-year-old accomplice of 'Jihad Jane' to five years in prison for an attempted terror plot to kill Swedish artist Lars Vilks, after getting involved with the murder plans when he was a teenager. READ () »

RECEIVE OUR NEWSLETTER AND ALERTS
TT
Society
Kids in Victorian garb mark Swedish Easter
Shutterstock
National
Swedish MP ordered chemtrail probe
Society
Swedish supermarket Ica pulls contested Easter commercial off air
Kungahuset
Society
Swedish royals set baptism date for princess
finest.se
Gallery
People-watching April 16
Politics
Who's the prime minister's heir?
Alfie Atkins
Society
Are children's books the key to families integrating in Sweden?
National
'Sweden Dem protests cater to party's martyr image'
National
'Swedish research grants were fantastic, but now it's like Australia'
Society
Only in Sweden: The ten problems you'd never encounter elsewhere
National
Swedes stopped to take my picture, but didn't look me in the eyes
Business & Money
A swipe of the hand replaced cash and cards in Lund
Advertisement:
YouTube
Features
Video: Oliver Gee finds out how to embrace The Swedish Hug
TT
National
Abba duo hints at reunion
Private
National
Flash mobs hug it out across Sweden
Finest.se
Gallery
People-watching April 11-13
TT
Politics
Swedes to give six-hour workday a go
TT
Society
Aussie choir member wows Abba in Sweden
YouTube
Society
Stockholm magic a surprise YouTube hit
Fastighetsbyrån
Society
Gallery: The Local's Property of the Week
Private
Society
Swedes find 200-year-old gravestone in living room
Stockholm School of Economics
Sponsored Article
Why a bachelor's degree is no longer enough
Deepti Vashisht
Features
Deepti Vashisht dissects the magic of Sweden's personal ID number
Shutterstock
Society
Ten signs you've been in Sweden too long
Latest news from The Local in Switzerland

More news from Switzerland at thelocal.ch

Latest news from The Local in Germany

More news from Germany at thelocal.de

Latest news from The Local in Spain

More news from Spain at thelocal.es

Latest news from The Local in France

More news from France at thelocal.fr

Latest news from The Local in Italy

More news from Italy at thelocal.it

Latest news from The Local in Norway

More news from Norway at thelocal.no

Blog Update: The Diplomatic Dispatch

28 October 15:16

The Green Growth Group Summit »

"Today on the 28 October in Brussels, a large group of key EU Ministers and business people, including UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Edward Davey, and Swedish Environment Minister Lena Ek, will meet to discuss green growth. They all have a stake in resolving a challenge which, although it is crucial..." READ »

729
jobs available
Swedish Down Town Consulting & Productions
Swedish Down Town Consulting & Productions is an innovative business company which provides valuable assistance with the Swedish Authorities, Swedish language practice and general communications. Call 073-100 47 81 or visit:
www.swedishdowntown.com