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May 25, 2012
Sweden faces 'late exit' from recession: IMF
Published: 7 Aug 09 17:57 CET | Double click on a word to get a translation
Online: http://www.thelocal.se/21174/20090807/
Sweden appears set to stay in recession for longer than most other countries and ought to take steps to further strengthen its beleaguered banks, according to a new assessment from the International Monetary Fund.
- IMF warns Swedish economy 'vulnerable' (16 May 12)
- 'United States losing its global influence': Borg (23 Apr 12)
- Sweden pledges $10bn to IMF bailout fund (18 Apr 12)
The IMF estimated that Swedish GDP would shrink by 6 percent in 2009, with a "modest" recovery to be expected in mid-2010.
Sweden's export composition and the regional role of its banks meant that the country had been hit harder than most by the global downturn.
The IMF said it "welcomed the authorities’ prompt and appropriate policy responses, which have allayed immediate concerns with financial sector stability, and helped cushion domestic demand."
But the country's prospects for recovery are largely dependent on overseas developments, it added.
"If global demand for Sweden’s output bundle recovers slowly relative to other components, Sweden could have a late exit out of the current recession," the IMF said.
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Well wisher for Sweden.
Yours,
jobless foreigner.
:)
Very educational video for you all.
Sweden/ Europe is going to have to wait on the United States to get out of this recession, before they can even see the light at the end of the tunnel.
And with unemployment continually rising, even all the redundancies in Sweden I just read about that haven't gone into effect yet. What is there going to be a jobless recovery?
Commercial real estate is starting to show problems now as well. By 2010/11 a lot of Alt-A mortgages are coming due and we'll see if they can all refinance. Expectations of 48% of American homeowners will be underwater.
America has written down near 50% of their problems while all of Europe has only reached 17% last I looked. So they have quite a few hundred billion to go. I don't even want to think about the Baltics/East Europe collapsing because it could spell the end of the Euro.
This recession is not global. China, India and Brazil are steaming ahead at present. China had at worst a blip and is heading for 8% growth again. South Korea is already recovering.
As for Europe. The problem is there is no agreement on how to regulate the banks, due to the UK and Ireland being against any agreement where the banks are properly regulated.
It is time that Spain, Ireland, Italy and the UK had there banking sectors properly regulated with investments backed up by actual equity, not wishful thinking in an equation.
We don't need USA banking in Europe. We need to find our own European way. Also the dollar needs to be dropped as the main currency as it is to volatile. China's idea of a basket of currency's is the first sensible thing I have heard on the subject or switch to Euro trading.
The key dynamics are the health of major export markets on the revenue side, and the ability to stay ahead of Asian competition on the cost/design side
German exports have unexpectedly resumed growth (7% if I recall right) in the last monthly data, and as a result, some pundits are calling an early exit from recession there
Where Germany goes, Sweden is likely to follow. Could be some surprises on the upside
Hope recovery comes quickly enough to save as much as possible of Swedens manufacturing base
the clouds on the horizon for Swedens economy are coming from the Baltic States, where Swedish banks have lent the equivalent of 25% (hope that figure is now lower!) of Swedens GDP to local businesses and individuals
yesterdays front-page news on the Financial Times was the S&P debt downgrades for the Baltic States ... this could be the beginning of the end for those countries currency pegs to the Euro ... forced devaluation of their currencies will be bad news indeed for Swedbank and SE Banken ... and by implication Swedish taxpayers if they are forced to step in to stabilise/rescue the Swedish banking system :-(