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February 14, 2012
Sweden coming out of recession: Riksbank
Published: 18 Aug 09 17:01 CET | Double click on a word to get a translation
Online: http://www.thelocal.se/21546/20090818/
“The deep recession has hit bottom, but the recovery will be weak", Sweden's deputy central bank governor Svante Öberg said in a speech made on Tuesday.
- Sweden faces 'late exit' from recession: IMF (7 Aug 09)
- Early signs of recovery in Stockholm (5 Aug 09)
- Swedish economy growing again: report (29 Jul 09)
"The situation in the financial markets has improved and the new information received during the summer confirms the view that the deep recession has bottomed out," said Öberg.
Öberg said the country's GDP drop was unlikely to be as severe in 2009 as the Riksbank had initially predicted. In its July Monetary Policy Report, the central bank saw GDP plunging by more than 5 percent.
But Öberg stressed the the recovery would take some time time, with GDP not expected to reach pre-crisis levels until 2012.
The Riksbank stood by its prediction that unemployment would peak at 11 percent in 2011, although it was encouraged by employment figures in June that were marginally better than anticipated.
Inflation remains "much higher" in Sweden than in the EU but underlying inflation was "entirely in line with our forecast" and the krona has strengthened quicker than the central bank predicted at its July monetary policy meeting.
Öberg said Sweden was now benefiting from a policy of building up surpluses in its public finances and current account.
"[T]his is a much better situation than in many other countries, such as the United Kingdom, where public finances have also deteriorated substantially, but where they had a deficit to start with," he said.
In summary, Öberg noted that "the new information received during the summer tends to point to a slightly stronger economic activity than we had forecast at the beginning of July."
He added however that the Riksbank "will not make an overall assessment of economic developments until it is time for our next monetary policy decision on 2 September. It is likely that more information will have come in by then and we will have to update our forecasts."
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I think with all the deleveraging (unwinding of toxic assets) the banks still have to do, as well as current concerns in the commercial real-estate market, that this is quite a bold statement on their part. So unemployment will peak in 2011, is Sweden going to have a jobless recovery? Credit is a little hard to come by right now.
A huge portion of these boosted 2nd quarter results was due to companies cutting costs. Consumer spending is still down.
In fact last I had read, think it was on here even, Sweden's residential real-estate was doing fine, it was commercial that was hurting presently. So you might not get the depressed prices you were hoping for. I would wait for that shoe to drop before making a move.
In the U.S. I will watch what happens to the coming Alt-A mortgages resetting in 2010-11, hopefully a lot of those people refinanced into fixed rate.
For now I will stick to REITs as my real-estate play, maybe even one of the new toxic asset funds. I would like to one day perhaps by a condo for 100k, 20k down that I can rent out to cover mortgage and generate some nice side income.
pound handout for every person living on the planet.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment stood at 9.4 percent, up from 9.3 percent in May, the European Union's Eurostat data agency said. The figure stood at 7.5 percent 12 months ago.
It meant that the number of people out of work rose by 158,000 over the month, to bring the total number of job seekers in the single currency bloc to 14.9 million.
The unemployment rate in the full 27-nation EU stood at 8.9 percent in June, also up by 0.1 percentage point over May. This compares to a rate of 6.9 percent in June 2008, Eurostat said.