Published: 2 Sep 10 09:32 CET | Print version
Online: http://www.thelocal.se/28724/20100902/
Sweden's Riksbank has raised the repo rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75 percent, a decision which was widely forecast.
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Watching Sweden's monetary policy over the last 2 years has been a jaw dropping experience.
Rates have been slashed to the bone, in theory to stave off the effects of a recession. The problem is the Swedish economy is not driven by domestic demand, its driven by exports. As such dropping interest rates for home buyers creates precious few jobs in Sweden, but it does fuel house price inflation.
This is exactly what has happened. Stockholm home owners have seen the value of their assets soar by some 15 pct in the last year year, a remarkable and wholly unsustainable level for a Western city in a mature economy, particularly in what is (if you follow the Riksbank's logic, a recession).
Thus Sweden in 2 reckless years has managed to create what its spent the previous 70 years trying to avoid. Namely a segregated society of winners (property owners) and losers (those locked outside property ownership and subject to the whims of a dysfunctional rental market).
But in the end everyone will lose. Sweden has simply replicated the errors the US made in the last decade. As The Economist noted recently, Sweden is the only Western country not to have experienced a significant house price correction in the last decade. When it comes its likely to be , and the Riksbank will be wholly to blame for the fall out.
Very interesting commentary. Strange how our (mis)leaders are handling our economy. Are they that misinformed or is there an ulterior motive???
We have entered a "post democratic era", or economic fascism (merger of state and corporate interests), and this is taking us all along the road to serfdom.
The future is not bright, I am most unhappy to say. It will get better, but only after it has become a whole lot worse.
With the alliance about to win the election I suspect we have worse to come.
Have a look at "Overdose: The Next Financial Crisis" on YouTube.
In terms of the currency and rates, the Euro became very strong against most currencies and this is the main export market fo Sweden.So had they not slashed rates, their exports would have been more expensive....however...the export market was dying regardless as everyone was suffering. So, in which case you have to rely on the internal market to at least try to minimise the damage from less exports. You can't just sit there and act as if nothing is happening outside Sweden!
Considering what was happening......at a very fast pace....the Swedish economy has survived better than most countries with he help of the banking regulations brought in when Sweden had its own credit crunch in the eraly nineties.
When I look back at what Riskbank did during the crisis, I found it performs worst than Fredrik Reinfeldt's goverment, especially treasury minister, Anders Borg.
Stefan Ingves seems like a retiring professor who looks only at past figures, no prediction sight at all. He drop the repo rate too late when crisis came, and now rise it too early when things just start to get better.
We're still talking peanuts.
Ingves has, as Riksbank president, the task to defend the Swedish krona. He has proved himself the last two-three years to be alienated from the present events. As a professional investor I cannot take his comments seriously. Who on earth can predict interest rates in 2014 under the present circumstances?
Of course, there is a major difference between house prices and inflation. House prices, particularly in the Stockholm region, are driven up by a shortage of housing. This has been so since at least 1945. That's why we have "bostadsrätter". This is a domestic issue.
Inflation is international. The present Swedish government has been prudent, not taken any irrational moves (Saab, Volvo), and has concentrated on expanding domestic growth. Today, Sweden is beginning to profit from these policies. Although the unemployment percentage has increased, (where did they come from? F-kassan?) Sweden is much better placed than many other European countries to face the coming testing years. The double-dip is no longer a pipe-dream.
And that's the mistake that Ingves can't see. He can't see the two entities apart: house prices versus inflation caused externally. That's why his forecasts are useless.
Pity that the Socialists have adopted right-wing policies. Now there's no choice. Still, I will still bet on a strong Swedish krona.