(edit title) Sweden Jan. Budget Deficit Exceeds Forecast Who writes these forecasts? Mr Naive? Options

[byke]

Sweden's budget deficit exceeded the estimate by SEK 75 billion in January due to on-lending to the central bank, the National Debt Office said Thursday. The central government payments showed a deficit of SEK 96.3 billion in January.

The Riksbank requested SEK 100 billion in foreign currency from the Debt Office to strengthen the foreign currency reserve. The Debt Office borrowed the equivalent of SEK 73.2 billion in January, which were then lent to the Riksbank.

Tax revenue in January was SEK 5.6 billion lower than forecast. The Debt Office's net lending to government agencies, excluding on-lending was SEK 2.7 billion lower than estimated, it said.

At the same time, interest payments on central government debt were SEK 1.3 billion lower than expected in January.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of January 2013, central government payments resulted in a deficit of SEK 106.6 billion.

http://www.rttnews.com/2052482/sweden-jan-...spx?type=alleco

[Yorkshireman]

You show that You know nothing about forecasting ... Forecasts are almost always wrong somehow. They are never as good as real calculated values, and it is a waste of time/money to focus too much on forecast accuracy. Improve the forecast accuracy, yes, but you can only so much. Use the forecast as a basis for strategic and tactical planning, yes, review and plan alternative scenarios as-well, at regular intervals, adjust the forecast and plans in line with expected trends and deviations

eg. You flip a coin, there is a 50/50 chance that it will be heads ...you could do a forecast, but because the probability is always 50/50 ...to try and improve your accuracy of forecast from 50% to 60% right calls for heads is actually a waste of effort.

[skogsbo]

Mr Naive, no it wasn't Mr Pessimistic either (alias Byke), probably Mr Optimistic, as with most things in business confidence is everything. India's growth has 'slumped' to only 5%, markets cooling like these should be more concerning.