(edit title) Sweden and the EU Just curious! Options

[ScoTboY]

Hi Locallers,

Can anyone help clarify a query I have, please? The British media is banging on about David Cameron/UK and something to do with signing a new EU treaty and a possible referendum. As Sweden is in the same boat as the UK, i.e. both countries are EU member states and have their own currencies, is the Swedish media also scaremongering its citizens? I have no idea what all this means as I don't know much about politics.

Thanks.

ScoTboY

[London_Jim]

David Cameron is heading up to Manchester today to pick up some tips on how to make an early exit from Europe.

[jostein]

The official plan from the eurozone leaders right now (France and Germany) is to go ahead and make the eu into a state. Reason being that since the eurozone is more or less bankrupt it would be opportune to force other rich eu-members into the eurozone to dilute the bad debts of Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece, France et al. Usually this is Germanys job but the Germans had enough and demand that other countries (such as UK) are brought in. Cameron responded to this proposal by saying that the UK constitution demands that a referendum be held before signing away power from parliament. Since Cameron knows he would be tarred and feathered if he went along with giving away the hardearned wealth of the UK citizens to the eurozone.

One big reason why both France and Germany even want to pay the debts of the mismanaged countries is that the banks of France and Germany lended heavily to the mismanaged countries. So, if Greece and Italy and Portugal for example goes bankrupts and refuses to pay their debts then the banks of France and Germany goes bust. This is probably a good thing in the long run but short to mid term this is catastrophic. Besides, the owners of the banks tend to be chummy with the politicians so there is alot of backscratching going on here behind the scenes.

Fortunately, it looks like this scheme is gonna fail. The eu itself has been working for "ever closer union" (ie a european state) way way way beyond what the citizens of the states of europe really want. So solving this eurocrisis by even more power to the eu will meet very strong opposition, especially from the well managed countries (Germany, Finland, Holland, Austria). The worst managed countries (Greece, Italy) have been put under eu supervision already and cant do very much anyway so what they think doesnt matter that much. Especially since the euro was jerrymandered onto many of the countries (the citizens that is, not the elites, they saw ooportunities for themselves in this) in the eurozone in the first place.

Besides, going ahead with such a big treaty change (ie, making the eu into a proper state) would take time. And the euro is going to collapse before the leaders of the eu/euro can make it happen.

In sweden the politicians are completely silent about this. Most of them because they dont really understand these things (in our country we make the silliest and least educated people politicians, an odd custom, i know) and the few clever ones because they know that the citizens dont like the eu. I only read the SvD (second largest morning paper, conservative) and they have sterling reporting on the euro crisis. Its cool headed and reporting like, just telling us whats happening and what various actors say. SvD thinks that the euro will probably collapse.

When the euro collapse it will lead to economic mayhem and export woes for british industry. One thing that could happen for example is that real estate owners in Britain wont be able to pay their morgages because they get fired because the economy is doing badly because of the eurocrisis and US debtcrisis. Then people will start to HAVE to sell their houses leading to the real estate prices plumetting leading to more and more people becoming bankrupt. This leaves everyone feeling poorer so domestic demand plummets making even more people go bust and so on.

You may know that the gold price is 3 times what it was in 2006. This is important because when the grizzled veterans of things economical and financial smell a rat they put their money in gold. So, those that know the best think this crisis will be big. Huge even.

If you ask me, these are interesting times to be alive. I would not trade my period on the earth for any other. We are wathcing the end of an era, is my beliefe. The post ww2 world is coming to an end. Im really really curious to see what will come in its place.

[Rick Methven]

Since Cameron knows he would be tarred and feathered if he went along with giving away the hardearned wealth of the UK citizens to the eurozone

The only thing that Cameron is worried about is protecting his bosses in the city from a financial transaction tax. As for hard earned wealth of UK citizens, those who have any left havealready sent it all offshore. The 99% of UK residents have SFA in the way of wealth.

[jostein]

Rick is right about this financial tax and that it might explain Camerons position. More important than what i said in my post. But the financial sector is a very big industry in the UK and important for tax revenue?

[SimonDMontfort]

...have just been listening to a European minister (not a UK one) talking on BBC Radio 4: apparently he saw the issue of a a financial transaction tax as being fairly marginal, and he doubted if it would come to pass, any time soon.

[Rick Methven]

Rick is right about this financial tax and that it might explain Camerons position. More important than what i said in my post. But the financial sector is a very big industry ... (show full quote)

Rick is right about this financial tax and that it might explain Camerons position. More important than what i said in my post. But the financial sector is a very big industry in the UK and important for tax revenue? ... (hide full quote)

This is the old storey of the Financila sector being so important to the UK and a tax would force the city high fliers to move to the Far East or the US. The Banks and other big money firms do not provide much tax revenue to the UK treasury. Barclays bank made billions in profit but paid only 2-3% tax as it all moved offshore. The vast majority of the British voters want the City guys who made the financial crisis and make vast profits manipulating the markets, to pay a robin hood tax, but Cameron and Osborne and the old Etonian crowd in charge of the country are all in it with the city crooks.

[jostein]

...have just been listening to a European minister (not a UK one) talking on BBC Radio 4: apparently he saw the issue of a a financial transaction tax as being fairly marginal ... (show full quote)

...have just been listening to a European minister (not a UK one) talking on BBC Radio 4: apparently he saw the issue of a a financial transaction tax as being fairly marginal, and he doubted if it would come to pass, any time soon. ... (hide full quote)

Well, the eurocrats probably just waved it about for negotiation purpuses?

[Gamla Hälsingebock]

A crises is a good way to introduce new thinking;... like the whole of Europe as one state... and it is the beginning of one government for all the world's people.

I wish trowbridgeford was still here to back me up on this hidden conspiracy.

These currency schemes are the work of nefarious scoundrels with no thought other than complete world domination.

All through mans history there always was the dream of world conquest, usually accomplished by sword and fire,
now it may be given life by the monetary destruction of society as we know it today.

When complete one man at the top of the government will be able to dictate at will: to all of us!!!!!

Will he be called "Big Brother"?

trowbridgeford, I need back-up!...Help

P/S: "there is many a truth in a jest"... Think about it!

[Rick Methven]

So Cameron went to Brussels to tell the other 26 EU member states that any changes to fiscal policy relating to a Financial transaction tax would not be enacted in the UK and if the rest of them did not agree then he would veto any agreement. The reply he got from Sarcozy & Merkel was a resounding 'Fuck off'

Now the 17 Euro zone countries plus six non Euro member states are going to enact their own inter Euro fiscal policy. Sweden and the Czech Republic are taking it back to their parliaments.Only the UK and Hungary have said a definite NO.

It looks like Cameron is going to go back home, raise the drawbridge and tell everybody that he is the only one of the 27 country heads that is in step. He claims that it was all amicable, but his actions has only made matters worse for the Eurozone and the French and the Germans are going to get revenge.

Expect an attack on Sterling within short

[London_Jim]

Sterling currently on 6 month high against Euro, Rick...Euro being hammered against dollar.

It depends how you interpret the veto. Some may see it as the UK controlling their own destiny and thus a powerful decision - certainly Asian cultures will see this as a great saving of face in comparison to the rest of the EU, others may see it as you write - retreat to isolation.

It's not the first time the UK has stood alone against European decisions, either political, military or economic, and we're still here - an out-post of the Roman Empire country with little raw materials, yet punching well above our weight for the past 400 years. Keep the faith.

[Rick Methven]

Sterling currently on 6 month high against Euro, Rick...Euro being hammered against dollar.

And Sterling is 17% down against the Kronor and about the same as it was against the Euro compared to what it was 3 years ago.

The Euro will regain its strength as fiscal policies are brought in to stabilise the economies of the Eurozone countries. Then the City high fliers that Cameron is taking his instructions from, will turn their attention to the pound once more and it will be hit hard, with the rest of Europe cheering on as the UK sinks into the sea. Now is a good time to buy Euro's.

By pandering to the Eurosceptic Tories and his city pals, Cameron has lost any vestige of influence the UK had in Europe. His veto card did not even go to a vote as he did not get any support from any other EU country. His action and blatant self interest when talking about the necessity to stabilise the Eurozone and then making it more difficult, has lost him any support he had from other EU states. All it has got him is support at last from buffoon Boris who said " Dave played a blinder"

It's like a silly public school boy jape, by an idiot who is incapable of organising a pissup in a brewery

[cogito]

jostein,
I agree, we live in interesting times. I found your input v. interesting, as always, and I'd like to know what you think
about "Merkozy" and the eurocrats deposing the democratically elected leaders of Italy and Greece and replacing them with unelected eurocrats.
A tad totalitaire?

[byke]

From what I have read and understood, I think Daves choice must have been a very tough one.

Either support the Euro, which is facing collapse and no one knows what will happen to it.
Or support the UK economy through the banking system it has which is more stable but again a lack of trust.

Given the concessions Britain had to choose between, since signing up to the new treaty could jeopardize a fundamental component to the UK. I have very little doubt that had a new banking levy been pushed through, it would have led to banks in the UK moving out. And given the euro desperation to save the currency, I have no doubt that it wont attempt to implement such.

Interestingly, Iceland isolated itself a few years back after the banking collapse and many people predicted no one would trade with such given what happend. Well Iceland said a big FU to everyone, went to work fixing itself ... and once it became buoyant again, its trading doors had many new customers (both past and new) as while we all have moral values, what business looks at is do they have the cash ... yes once you have your foot in the door, its easier to get help when things go pear shape. But fresh healthy cash is always more interesting than well established brands who need help.

I have no doubt that based on economical circumstances, if Britain was to really isolate itself from the euro. That it could easily reconnect in 10 years from now if the euro survives. As money talks ... I think the only opposition the UK would see to rejoining later on down the line is by nations that bring emotions to the table rather than business **cough - France** But the euro collection is not about morals, just cash.

I will be very interested to see what Sweden chooses ....
I have a feeling they will signup with reluctance, and it really could be a just hold on and hope for the best. Personally I am not sure if the risks are worth it. And it will be interesting to see what countries will be willing to invest cash into the debt ridden problem, and how below par it will be in terms of the eu block having to squeeze more out to achieve its goals.

That said and done, I think Dave may have chosen the right deal for the UK.
But its a question the best of 2 shite situations.

In regards to Sweden ... tough one as Finland has lead the way by signing up along with Denmark.
Finland I understand, but Denmark? I dont quite understand.

Strange how the situation has made the dollah look good again.

[London_Jim]

And Sterling is 17% down against the Kronor and about the same as it was against the Euro compared to what it was 3 years ago.The Euro will regain its strength as fiscal polic ... (show full quote)

And Sterling is 17% down against the Kronor and about the same as it was against the Euro compared to what it was 3 years ago.

The Euro will regain its strength as fiscal policies are brought in to stabilise the economies of the Eurozone countries. Then the City high fliers that Cameron is taking his instructions from, will turn their attention to the pound once more and it will be hit hard, with the rest of Europe cheering on as the UK sinks into the sea. Now is a good time to buy Euro's.

By pandering to the Eurosceptic Tories and his city pals, Cameron has lost any vestige of influence the UK had in Europe. His veto card did not even go to a vote as he did not get any support from any other EU country. His action and blatant self interest when talking about the necessity to stabilise the Eurozone and then making it more difficult, has lost him any support he had from other EU states. All it has got him is support at last from buffoon Boris who said " Dave played a blinder"

It's like a silly public school boy jape, by an idiot who is incapable of organising a pissup in a brewery ... (hide full quote)

It's certainly one way of looking at it.

Another would be that finally he's being what the point of a politician is and doing what the majority of his electorate want. Irrespective of whether the Eurozone's fiscal policies will work or not - something you or I can't be sure about, no matter what you write, the majority of the British public don't want to devolve economic power to the Eurozone.

I'm amazed that you seem so confident that the Eurozone under Merkel and Sarkozy will be united and move forward as one - all evidence shows that the whole system is rife with distrust and petty squabbles. It's also strange that you state that Cameron is being lead by the City, something that may be true, but then you assume Sarkozy and Merkel aren't influenced by their respective financial sectors - do you think the trillion Euro exposure that their banks have in the Eurozone doesn't affect their decision making in holding it together? Seems a bit naive.

Sterling is weakened not solely because of economic anxieties in the British economy (still Triple A with all 4 ratings agencies) but because of £275 billion worth of QE. Cable back up to 1.57 and GBP/Eur is in the same range still that it's been in for 2 years - so not sure currency markets show the doom that you believe.