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What a sad state of affairs

But maybe it's just right-wing rhetoric?

eardoctor
post 22.Apr.2013, 09:19 AM
Post #1
Joined: 15.Oct.2008

http://frontpagemag.com/2013/dgreenfield/1...s-increase-500/

we heard it all before, but just how accurate IS this tosh?
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djmarko
post 22.Apr.2013, 09:37 AM
Post #2
Location: Stockholm
Joined: 18.Jan.2007

sounds like propaganda, sort of scare tactics, are things really that bad?? I thought islam forbids these types of things anyway like fornication, drinking, criminality, so where did it all go wrong??
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Mesost
post 22.Apr.2013, 03:34 PM
Post #3
Joined: 10.May.2006

"are things really that bad?" a familiar attitude in Europe of late
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oluies
post 9.May.2013, 09:23 PM
Post #4
Joined: 8.Aug.2012

Here is the official statistics

http://www.bra.se/bra/brott--statistik/val...exualbrott.html

Note that if someone is raped three times during one attact it counts as three rapes and so forth.
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Anthropocene
post 9.May.2013, 11:47 PM
Post #5
Joined: 17.Sep.2012

The website this is posted on should give some hint of the nature of the analysis provided. Just take a look at the website's tagline, for goodness sake. This is a resource with a vested interest. Immediately, I assume it's worth ignoring but I'll play along for now.

I have no means of verifying the accuracy of the statistics quoted (or rather, I don't have the time to do so). That said, many of the links for the statistics link to an associated website. One should already be suspicious about the veracity of this data. The population data, for example, cites as its raw source an article in a Danish newspaper. This newspaper, itself, is conservative leaning, which also suggests that it shouldn't be relied upon as an unbiased source.

I sincerely doubt the veracity of this data, however - in 2005, the UN estimated that 12% of the Swedish population was immigrant; it seems unlikely that the 5% growth in population cited as being due to immigration is, therefore, feasible as it would suggest almost 50% growth in Sweden's immigrant population in five years...

Now, despite that, let's assume that all of the data is unbiased and correct.

First, it should also be noted that rape is defined very differently in Sweden than in most other places. As stated in this thread, each act between two individuals is considered in the statistics, rather than the victim and perpetrator, as in most other countries. Firstly, this means that comparison between rape in Sweden and rape in countries that define rape differently is meaningless. It also suggests (deliberate) misinterpretation of the data which generates the probability of an individual being a victim of rape. The 1 in 4 figure is certainly distorted by this definition.

Sweden has three categories of rape enshrined in law. I'll attempt to be careful with the wording I use here because I certainly don't want to align what I say to those that refer to certain offences as "legitimate" rape. That said, under Swedish law, the most minor rape offence would not be considered rape in other countries and are probably removed from what many individuals would consider as rape. This, again, means that comparing rape in Sweden (in terms of headline figures) and elsewhere is problematic and one is not comparing like with like.

Now, let's even assume this is not problematic and let's look at the suggested link between immigration and rape.

The article cites a jump between 2003, 2005 and 2008. It goes onto state, "Now they are almost certainly even higher as Muslim immigrants continue forming a larger percentage of the population." The language here is not one of certainty at all - it's a guess. The source linked to at this point of the article also states: "The current rape statistics are likely much higher today, like in similar proven cases in Norway." In both cases, big assertions are made to carry the argument.

So, the article makes a comparison between 2003, 2005 and 2008. The link for the statistics about the number of Muslims involved compares two four year windows: 1985 - 1989 and 1995-2001. This is insane. Literally insane. More so, those statistics refer to rapes involving immigrants; not specifically Muslim immigrants. Again, a big difference. Even if we were comparing appropriate years, which we aren't - as the article itself states (assuming the data is correct) the leap in (Muslim) population occurs after 2004. If there is a problem with rape involving immigrant perpetrators, the data that supports this suggests it was a problem before the major influx of Muslim immigrants the article states is problematic.

The article from which the 77% of offences figure is drawn, seemingly, takes hard data from a report in 1996 and simply extrapolates that, based on the number of immigrants in the country. This analysis is so fundamentally flawed that, as a statistician, I don't even know where to start. Perhaps by battering my face off a wall?

So, what happened between 2003 and 2005 & 2008 that might cause the jump experienced in the data but that does not relate to immigration? Ah yes - the Sexual Offences Act 2005, which further redefined rape and should have an obvious inflationary impact on the figure.

So, we have a major increase in rape cases (with the obvious link to the change of law in 2005) and an, apparently major increase in (Muslim) immigrant population, as built from a highly dubious and unreliable data source. At best, we have a correlation, assuming the veracity of the data. But then again, one can show similar correlations between organic food sales and diagnosis of autism (http://boingboing.net/2013/01/01/correlation-between-autism-dia.html). Only the most bizarre of minds would seek to link those two things. Given the inherent issues here, one would assume that similarly bizarre minds have attempted to skew, misrepresent (and quite possibly manufacture) data to make a point that simply doesn't exist.

In short - yeah, load of right-wing bullshit.

But given the terms used in the articles, we all knew that anyway, right?
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Anthropocene
post 10.May.2013, 12:14 AM
Post #6
Joined: 17.Sep.2012

I rewrote this slightly and for some reason, the forum won't let me edit:

The website this is posted on should give some hint of the nature of the analysis provided. Just take a look at the website's tagline, for goodness sake, or the emotive language used. This is a resource with a vested interest. Immediately, I assume it's worth ignoring but I'll play along for now because I'm a nerd and I live destroying bad use of statistics.

I have no means of verifying the accuracy of the statistics quoted (or rather, I don't have the time / energy to do so). That said, some of the links to "statistical" sources in this article link to a website associated with the one this "analysis" is posted on. This is enough to set sirens blaring and should certainly make one suspicious about the veracity of any data in this article. The data on population growth (and its being due to Muslim immigration) cites, as its raw source, a popular journalism article in a Danish newspaper. This newspaper is, itself, conservative leaning, suggesting even the raw data and the analysis of it employed, cannot be relied upon as an unbiased source.

A simple check of data sheds quite significant doubt on the veracity of these claims. In 2005, the UN estimated that 12% of the Swedish population was immigrant; it seems unlikely that the 5% growth in net population cited as being due to immigration, particular the repatriation of families, is, therefore, feasible. This would suggest almost 50% growth in Sweden's immigrant population in five years... Official Swedish figures from 2009 suggest about 110,000 Muslims living in Sweden; it is simply incredible, therefore, to believe the figures stated. Even the highest estimates suggest a population of about 500,000 (ethnic) Muslims. Again, it is therefore incredible to attribute a 500,000 person growth in Swedish population to (Muslim) immigration.

Now, despite that, let's assume that all of this data is unbiased and correct. I mean, it could be - I might just be a victim of "social engineering" too, after all...

So, let's get down to the analysis:

First, it should also be noted that rape is defined very differently in Sweden than in most other places. As stated in this thread, each act between victim and rapist is counted in the statistics, rather than the victim and rapist counting, only, as one rape as is the case in most other countries. Firstly, this means that comparison between rape in Sweden and rape in countries that define rape differently is meaningless - the figure about Sweden being the country with the second highest prevalence of rape is, therefore, unreliable at best. More so, it also suggests (deliberate) misinterpretation of the data which generates the probability of an individual being a victim of rape. The 1 in 4 figure is certainly distorted by the Swedish definition.

Sweden has three categories of rape enshrined in law. I'll attempt to be careful with the wording I use here because I certainly don't want to align what I say to those that refer to certain offences as "legitimate" rape. That said, under Swedish law, the most minor rape offence would not be considered rape in other countries and is probably removed from what many individuals would consider as rape. This, again, means that comparing rape in Sweden (in terms of headline figures) and elsewhere is problematic - one is not comparing like with like. The statistics and analysis of the prevalence of rape in Sweden, on which this analysis is based, is therefore fundamentally incorrect.

Now, let's even assume this is not problematic and let's look at the suggested link between immigration and rape.

The article cites jumps between 2003, 2005 and 2008. The most immediate factor to consider here is the change in the Sexual Offences Act in Sweden in 2005. Comparing 2003 with anything after 2005 is immediately problematic. The redefinition of rape in 2005 will have had an obvious inflationary impact on reporting and categorisation of rape offences.

Even ignoring this, the source which attributes 77% of rapes to immigrants is based on comparisons between two clusters of years, both of which span periods significantly earlier than either the cited rape statistics in 2003, 2005 and 2008 or the supposed massive influx of (Muslim) immigrants between 2004 and 2009. The two blocks compared are 1985 - 1989 and 1995 - 2001. This is already a crazy basis for an argument. How (supposed) changes in incidence of rape between 2003, 2005 and 2008 could be linked to who committed offences in 1985 is lost on me. Similarly, how data relating to total immigrant population involvement in rape cases reflects on Muslim immigrants is also entirely bizarre. At best, this suggests that there is a problem with immigrant involvement in rape in Sweden; not a problem with Muslim immigrants. This includes many offences carried out by white Western Europeans, one presumes, yet attention is not drawn to that in the article.

The analysis in the article from which the 77% of offences involving immigrants is drawn is, frankly, bizarre. From what I can gather, it is based on hard data from a report in 1996. Given an involvement in rape cases of 30% or more from an immigrant population of, at most, 12%, this figure is perhaps alarming. But see above. The extrapolation to the future, however, is where the weirdness kicks in. From what I can gather, this analysis HOLDS THE NUMBER OF RAPES CONSTANT but allows the immigrant population to grow, then amazingly finds an alarming increase in the number of rapes committed by the growing immigrant population... That said, fully deciphering this methodology is difficult because the argument is very, very underspecified in the source - in reality, it looks like some idiot clowning around with a spreadsheet. This analysis is so fundamentally flawed that, as a statistician, I don't even know where to start. Perhaps by battering my face off a wall?

So, what we actually have is a major increase in rape cases (with the obvious link to the change of law in 2005) and an, apparently major increase in (Muslim) immigrant population, as suggested by highly dubious and unreliable data sources. At best, we have a correlation between the two phenomena, assuming the veracity of the data. In a similar vein, one can show similar correlations between organic food sales and diagnosis of autism (http://boingboing.net/2013/01/01/correlation-between-autism-dia.html). Only the most bizarre of minds would seek to causally link those two things. Given the inherent issues here, one would assume that similarly bizarre minds have attempted to skew, misrepresent (and quite possibly manufacture) data to make a point that simply doesn't exist about rape in Sweden.

In short - yeah, load of right-wing bullshit. It is rather creative, though, in an entirely sickening and warped way.

Then again, given the terms used in the articles, we all knew that anyway, right?
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Anthropocene
post 10.May.2013, 12:38 AM
Post #7
Joined: 17.Sep.2012

Sorry to revisit this, again but it should also be stated that the 30%+ of rapes involving immigrant perpetrators is entirely meaningless without comparison to figures of proportional involvement of immigrants in rape accusations in other (comparable) countries. Whilst alarming, the figure would only be specifically alarming for Sweden if this figure was significantly higher than in comparable countries.
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chloeff
post 10.May.2013, 11:53 AM
Post #8
Joined: 21.Apr.2013

You have no idea what you are talking about.
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Max Reaver
post 10.May.2013, 11:55 AM
Post #9
Joined: 26.May.2011

Enlighten us then!
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cogito
post 10.May.2013, 01:39 PM
Post #10
Joined: 30.Dec.2009

QUOTE (Anthropocene @ 9.May.2013, 11:47 PM) *
The website this is posted on should give some hint of the nature of the analysis provided. Just take a look at the website's tagline, for goodness sake. This is a resourc ... (show full quote)

You dismiss the findings as unreliable because the source is conservative (gasp! the horror). And then you support your position using figures from the U.N? Reliable? The U.N?
Surely you are familiar with the old saying: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies amd statistics.
I haven't the time or patience to read your walls of text (don't you fingers hurt after typing all that?), but I do have one question:
What would be your stand Julians Assange's Swedish accusers? Rape? or not rape?
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Anthropocene
post 10.May.2013, 01:49 PM
Post #11
Joined: 17.Sep.2012

Firstly - I do not suppose UN data to be "reliable" and at no stage in my post do I suggest it is. If you had taken the time to read my post, however, you would have seen other data sources mentioned that are more in line with the UN data than the data used to make the "argument" originally posted. I merely pointed to other data sources which contradict those used to make the argument. I suppose, however, that all three sources could be "socially engineered".

The last question has no relevance to the original question posted in this thread and I have no desire to comment on it, especially not least with someone who has shown no real apparent interest in my original post.
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Svensksmith
post 10.May.2013, 02:10 PM
Post #12
Joined: 28.Jul.2011

Are things really that bad?

No, everything is just RosengÄrd...I mean rosey.
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Affonso
post 11.May.2013, 12:45 PM
Post #13
Joined: 7.Apr.2013

What is the problem?

If I am not mistaken, many of these women are drunk or out late at night when getting raped. So how can this be a problem? Such women only have themselves to blame. Don't argue with me, even Swedish judges feel the same way.

Getting drunk and partying late at night comes with personal responsibility.
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intrepidfox
post 11.May.2013, 03:02 PM
Post #14
Location: Gothenburg
Joined: 18.Jul.2012

You are really pathetic. You are basically saying that a man has the right to rape a woman. What land do you come from?
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vicky7
post 11.May.2013, 03:21 PM
Post #15
Joined: 28.Nov.2012

QUOTE (Affonso @ 11.May.2013, 11:45 AM) *
What is the problem?If I am not mistaken, many of these women are drunk or out late at night when getting raped. So how can this be a problem? Such women only have themselves ... (show full quote)

Quite true. The swedish culture and legal system does not support women who drink heavily.

When in public, use your head.
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