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ECONOMY

Capital gains

There was welcome news for Stockholm's jobseekers this week as the region's Chamber of Commerce forecast an increase in jobs to match the continued growth in the economy.

But whether or not you’ll benefit very much depends upon what sector you work in. The service and technology sectors are expected to expand the most, with every third IT company saying that they expect to recruit before the end of the year.

“We know from previous experience that companies’ answers about planned recruitment usually reflect what they actually do,” said Peter Egardt, the head of Stockholm’s Chamber of Commerce.

According to Svenska Dagbladet, the capital city started to overtake the country’s average growth rate at the beginning of the year – for the first time since the second quarter of 2001.

But while Dagens Nyheter reported that the country’s industrial sector has increased output to 91.1% of capacity – up 1.8% on the same period last year – Stockholm’s manufacturing firms have lost a little steam.

“The sector, which accounts for 18% of the region’s economy, has lost pace with export orders not increasing at the same rate as in the second quarter,” wrote SvD, which pointed out that the consequence would be employment cutbacks.

The biggest beneficiaries of a recent economic upturn appear to be companies listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange, which have posted record profits in the third quarter of the year. Top of the pile was Ericsson, which banked a tidy 7 billion crowns – not bad compared to a paltry 1.1 billion in the third quarter of last year.

Analyst Peter Malmqvist told Göteborgs-Posten that overall profits were up 70% compared to the same time last year. Even taking out Ericsson’s mammoth gains, profits have improved by 28%.

“The profits are surprisingly good,” said Malmqvist. “I can tell you that a year ago there wasn’t anyone who thought we would hit these levels.”

GP noted that profits haven’t improved so quickly since 2000. But thanks largely to the uncertainty surrounding the Saab plant in Trollhättan, the outlook for Sweden’s west coast economy isn’t so rosy.

A new report from bank Nordea anticipates an average output growth of 3.7% for Sweden this year and 3.2% next year. Leading the way is the Mälardalen region, including Stockholm, with 4.2% growth in 2004.

But although the Gothenburg area hits the average growth rate this year, the bank expects that to shrink to 2.7% next year.

Sources: Dagens Nyheter, Svenska Dagbladet, Göteborgs Posten

ECONOMY

‘Tougher times’: Sweden’s economy to slow next year

Consumers in Sweden are set to crimp spending over the rest of the year, pushing the country into an economic slowdown, Sweden's official economic forecaster has warned in its latest prognosis.

'Tougher times': Sweden's economy to slow next year

A combination of record high energy prices over the winter, rising interest rates, and inflation at around 10 percent, is set to hit household spending power over the autumn and winter, leading to lower sales for businesses and dragging economic growth down to just 0.5 percent next year. This is down from the 1.2 percent the institute had forecast for 2023 in its spring forecast. 

“I don’t want to be alarmist,” Ylva Hedén Westerdahl, forecasting head at the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research, said at a press conference announcing the new forecast. “We don’t expect the sort of economic slowdown that we saw during the financial crisis or the pandemic, where unemployment rose much more. But having said that, people who don’t have a job will find it tougher to enter the labour market.” 

She said that a shortage of gas in Europe over the winter, will push electricity prices in Sweden to twice the levels seen last winter, while the core interest rate set by Sweden’s Riksbank is set to rise to two percent. 

As a result, Sweden’s unemployment rate will rise slightly to 7.8 percent next year, from 7.7 percent in 2022, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the institute had previously forecast. 

On the plus side, Westerdahl said that she expected the Riksbank’s increases in interest rates this year and next year would succeed in getting inflation rates in Sweden under control. 

“We expect a steep decline in inflation which is going to return to below two percent by the end of 2023,” she said. “That depends on whether electricity prices fall after the winter, but even other prices are not going to rise as quickly.” 

After the press conference, Sweden’s finance minister, Mikael Damberg, said he broadly agreed with the prognosis. 

“I’ve said previously that we are on the way into tougher times, and that is what the institute confirms,” he told Sweden’s state broadcaster SVT. “There’s somewhat higher growth this year, at the same time as fairly high inflation which will hit many households and make it tougher to live.”

Damberg called on Sweden’s political parties to avoid making high-spending promises in the election campaign, warning that these risked driving up inflation. 

“What’s important in this situation is that we don’t get irresponsible when it comes to economic policy,” he said. “Because when parties make promises left, right and centre, it risks driving up inflation and interest rates even more, so Swedish households have an even tougher time. Right now, it’s important to prioritise.” 

 The call 

Sverige är på väg mot lågkonjunktur enligt Konjunkturinstitutets (KI) senaste prognos. Enligt finansminster Mikael Damberg (S) är det därför viktigt att Sverige sköter sin ekonomi ansvarsfullt och vågar prioritera.

– Jag tror att alla partier behöver vara lite återhållsamma och inte lova för mycket, säger han.

Mikael Damberg tycker att KI tecknar en realistisk bild av Sveriges ekonomiska verklighet.

– Jag har sagt tidigare att vi går mot tuffare tider och det är väl det som KI bekräftar. Något högre tillväxt i år men sämre tillväxtförutsättningar nästa år samt fortsatt ganska hög inflation som slår mot många hushåll och gör det tuffare att leva, säger han.

Och vad vill regeringen göra åt det?

– Det är viktigt att vi i det här läget inte är ansvarslösa i den ekonomiska politiken. För när partier lovar vitt och brett till allt riskerar vi att driva upp inflationen, öka räntan ytterligare och svenska hushåll får det svårare. Nu måste man våga prioritera.

Se intervjun med Damberg om konjunkturläget klippet ovan.

“Electricity prices are going to be twice as high as last winter,” said 

Elpriserna kommer att bli dubbelt så höga som förra vintern, säger Ylva Hedén Westerdahl, chef för Konjunkturinstitutets prognosavdelning, på en pressträff.
Den lågkonjunktur som KI ser framför sig kallar hon trots det för en mjuklandning. Den handlar främst om att människor kommer att ha mindre pengar att konsumera.

“Brist på gas i Europa gör att energipriserna ser ut att bli rekordhöga under vintern”, skriver KI, och ser att inflationen kommer att närma sig 10 procent.

Deras prognos för styrräntan är att den ligger på 2 procent vid årsslutet, vilket gör att inflationen faller tillbaka snabbt under nästa år och Riksbanken låter då räntan ligga still.

KI tillägger att de offentliga finanserna är fortsatt starka och de bedömer att det finns ett budgetutrymme på runt 120 miljarder kronor för de kommande fyra åren.

Vad gäller BNP spår KI en blygsam tillväxt på 0,5 procent nästa år – en nedskrivning från tidigare 1,2 procent.

Prognosen för arbetslösheten under 2023 är 7,8 procent, 0,3 procentenheter högre än tidigare prognos.

Fredrik Fahlman/TT
Johanna Ekström/TT

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