The centre-right Alliance is 5 percentage points ahead of the socialist block. This is an historically unassailable lead, given that it is less than one year until the election. This is according to political magazine Riksdag & Departement, which cites election researcher Professor Sören Holmberg.
Holmberg has carried out a detailed study of opinion polls from one year before all general elections since 1968 and compared these to the actual results.
In all twelve elections examined by the study, the socialist block has improved its showing by an average of less than one percent in the year leading up to polling.
“My tip is that it will be hard for the Social Democrats to manage this,” he told the magazine.
Statistics Sweden’s comparison between opinion polls carried out in the May of the year before an election and the actual result also supports the theory. The block that was leading in the May opinion polls always held the lead up to the election.
However, increasing voter volatility could yet disprove the theory. In the last election nearly one voter in three changed party. The number of new small parties, which is expected to increase dramatically next autumn, could also affect the outcome.