Of the 15 European countries signed up to the international pact, 10 would miss their targets unless they took urgent action, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), Britain’s leading progressive think-tank.
Ireland, Italy and Spain were among those given a red warning in a so-called traffic light rating system used by the group to grade countries on their likelihood to meet Kyoto pledges.
The study said France, Greece and Germany – rated as amber – would hit their targets only if planned polices were successfully carried out.
IPPR associate director Tony Grayling said: “We are nearing the point of no return on climate change.
“We have very little time left to start reducing global greenhouse gas emissions before irreparable damage is done.
“It is vital that EU countries keep their promises to cut pollution.”
Kyoto sets legally binding targets for developed countries to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases blamed for global warming by 2012.