The Swedish economy is firing on all cylinders and growth is set to remain high. SEB’s economic experts also expect to see a good deal of job creation.
“This growth period will see the creation of a quarter of a million new jobs and we believe that the Riksbank will present an interest rate that is above market expectations. We believe that the interest rate could eventually peak at 4.5 percent and we expect two increases before the summer,” said Klas Eklund, chief economist for SEB.
The bank’s predictions contradict those made on Monday by Irma Rosenberg, who toned down the risk of inflation and the need for interest rate increases.
“She obviously thought the market was moving too fast in the short and medium term. But she actually didn’t say anything about the long term,” said Eklund.
SEB estimates that interest rates will reach 4 percent by the end of 2007, before hitting 4.5 percent in the first half of 2008.
The bank’s economists also predict that this year’s round of wage negotiations will result in wage increases that are one percentage point above those of the previous period.
This means average wage increases of 4 percent for 2007 and 2008, a level which would not hinder a continued drop in unemployment figures. According to SEB, there will be 5 percent open unemployment this year and 4.5 percent in 2008.
Inflation measured in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPI) is set to reach 1.5 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year.
When measured according to UND1X inflation is expected to reach 0.7 percent in 2007 and 1.8 percent in 2008.