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Riksbank forecasts interest rate rise

After a meeting on Thursday, Sweden's Riksbank decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 3.25 percent. The bank does however expect the rate to be raised gradually in the future and to a greater extent than was forecast in February.

Published: 4 May 2007 10:41 CEST

The Riksbank’s decision is based on the economic indicators and inflation assessments presented in the February Monetary Policy Report and on the new information on economic developments received since then.

Wages, for example, are expected to increase at a faster rate than previously expected.

The bank did however point out that while current indications suggest a gradual interest rate increase, future economic developments remain uncertain.

“It is therefore also uncertain how the repo rate will develop in the future.

“This will depend as usual on new information on economic developments in Sweden and abroad and the effects this may have on economic activity and inflation in Sweden,” said the bank in a statement.

Sweden's Riksbank raises rates above zero for first time since 2014

In a press release announcing the move, the bank said that it needed to take action to bring down the current high rate of inflation, which it predicts will average 5.5 percent in 2022, before sinking to 3.3 percent in 2023.

“Inflation has risen to the highest level since the 1990s and is going to stay high for a while. To prevent high inflation taking hold in price and wage developments, the directors have decided to raise interest rates from zero to 0.25 percent,” it said.

The Riksbank, which is tasked by the government to keep inflation at around two percent, has been caught off-guard by the speed and duration of price rises.

Just a few months ago, in February, it said it expected inflation to be temporary, predicting there was no need to increase rates until 2024.

The last time the key inflation rate was above zero was in the autumn of 2014.

In the press release, the bank warned that the rate would continue to increase further in the coming years.

“The prognosis is that the interest rate will be increased in two to three further steps this year, and that it will reach a little under two percent at the end of the three-year prognosis period,” it said.

According to the bank’s new future scenarios, its key interest rate will reach about 1.18 percent in a year, and 1.57 percent within two years.

In a further tightening of Sweden’s monetary policy, the bank has also decided to reduce its bond purchases.

“With this monetary policy we expect inflation rates to decline next year and from 2024 to be close to two percent,” the bank wrote.

Annika Winsth, the chief economist of Nordea, one of Sweden’s largest banks, said the rate hike was “sensible”.

“When you look at how inflation is right now and that the Riksbank needs to cool down the economy, it’s good that they’re taking action – the earlier the better. The risk if you wait is that you need to righten even more.”

She said people in Sweden should be prepared for rates to rise even further.

“You shouldn’t rule it out in the coming year. Then you’ll have a once percentage point increase which will go straight into fluctuating mortgage rates.”

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