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UNEMPLOYMENT

SBAB forecasts interest rate cut

Swedish state-owned mortgage lender, SBAB, has given hope to hard-hit homeowners by forecasting an interest rate cut in December.

A swift decline in the rate of inflation will prompt the Swedish Riksbank to revise its plans for further base rate rises, forecasts SBAB in a new state of the market forecast.

“We are counting on the Riksbank cutting the base rate at its next meeting in December when the first indications of a lower rate of inflation begin to show,” said Tomas Pousette at SBAB in a press release.

SBAB believes that the Swedish economy will also benefit from financial policy and follow the US pattern with high growth returning already in 2009. GDP growth is forecast to amount to 1.9 percent in 2008 and 2.3 percent in 2009.

SBAB forecasts that the Riksbank will cut the base rate from 4.50 percent to 3.5 percent by next summer. This will lead to a rebound in house prices after a short dip.

By 2010 SBAB forecasts that Swedish GDP will climb to 3.2 percent. Consumer prices are expected to climb 3.7 percent in 2008, 2.2 percent in 2009 and 1.7 percent in 2010.

Open unemployment is forecast to be 6.0 percent in 2008 and 2009 and to climb to 6.2 percent in 2010.

ECONOMY

Sweden’s Riksbank raises rates above zero for first time since 2014

Sweden's central bank has increased its key interest rate to 0.25 percent, marking the first time the rate has been above zero for nearly eight years.

Sweden's Riksbank raises rates above zero for first time since 2014

In a press release announcing the move, the bank said that it needed to take action to bring down the current high rate of inflation, which it predicts will average 5.5 percent in 2022, before sinking to 3.3 percent in 2023.

“Inflation has risen to the highest level since the 1990s and is going to stay high for a while. To prevent high inflation taking hold in price and wage developments, the directors have decided to raise interest rates from zero to 0.25 percent,” it said. 

The Riksbank, which is tasked by the government to keep inflation at around two percent, has been caught off-guard by the speed and duration of price rises.

Just a few months ago, in February, it said it expected inflation to be temporary, predicting there was no need to increase rates until 2024.

The last time the key inflation rate was above zero was in the autumn of 2014. 

In the press release, the bank warned that the rate would continue to increase further in the coming years. 

“The prognosis is that the interest rate will be increased in two to three further steps this year, and that it will reach a little under two percent at the end of the three-year prognosis period,” it said. 

According to the bank’s new future scenarios, its key interest rate will reach about 1.18 percent in a year, and 1.57 percent within two years. 

In a further tightening of Sweden’s monetary policy, the bank has also decided to reduce its bond purchases. 

“With this monetary policy we expect inflation rates to decline next year and from 2024 to be close to two percent,” the bank wrote. 

Annika Winsth, the chief economist of Nordea, one of Sweden’s largest banks, said the rate hike was “sensible”. 

“When you look at how inflation is right now and that the Riksbank needs to cool down the economy, it’s good that they’re taking action – the earlier the better. The risk if you wait is that you need to righten even more.” 

She said people in Sweden should be prepared for rates to rise even further. 

“You shouldn’t rule it out in the coming year. Then you’ll have a once percentage point increase which will go straight into fluctuating mortgage rates.” 

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