Four polls in a row, all from different pollsters, have shown the Alliance leading the opposition by a small margin.
The Novus poll, commissioned by TV4, showed that the Moderate Party and the Social Democrats virtually neck and neck: Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s party rose 0.7 points compared to Novus’s June poll, garnering 31.8 percent; Mona Sahlin’s Social Democrats rose 0.2 points to 32.7 percent.
If the scores were replicated in the general election on September 19th, they would amount to the worst showing since 1914 for the Social Democrats.
Overall, the four-party governing Alliance was supported by 47.9 percent of respondents, compared to 46.3 percent for the Red-Green partnership – a lead of just 1.6 points for the Alliance. The combined score of the governing parties was 2 points higher than in June.
But the results of the poll would not be enough to give the Alliance a majority, as the nationalist Sweden Democrats appear to have enough support to cross the 4 percent threshold needed to enter parliament. The anti-immigration party had the support of 4.2 percent of respondents, which if reflected in the election would leave them holding the balance of power.
Of the smaller parties currently in the Riksdag, the Liberal Party (Folkpartiet) saw support rise by 2.1 points to 6.9 percent – the only statistically significant movement in support for any of the parties.
Novus Opinion interviewed 2,000 people by phone between 3rd and 16th August. They were asked: ‘How would you vote if there were parliamentary elections today.’ 13.5 percent said they were unsure how they would vote.