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Swedish model tips Obama election doom

AFP/The Local · 16 Oct 2010, 08:35

Published: 16 Oct 2010 08:35 GMT+02:00

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If history is any guide Obama's allies will lose, in part, thanks to a painfully slow rise in Americans' disposable income according to a model built by Sweden-based researcher Douglas Hibbs.

The Gothenburg University affiliated researcher who studied data from elections dating from 1950 to 2006, predicts Democrats will lose 45 seats in the House of Representatives, putting them in the minority and badly stymieing Obama's ability to govern.

Hibbs found that 50-plus years of elections had shown that the incumbent party usually retains 62 seats, plus a number of seats equal to about 62 percent of those won at the previous major election.

The party also loses 1.4 seats for every percentage point of the sitting president's win margin in the previous election, for Obama 7.4 percentage points.

Crucially for the president he could claw back "10 seats for every percentage point of growth in per capita real disposable personal income over the congressional term."

But unfortunately for Obama retaining the majority would still need disposable income to increase by 0.8 percent over the first seven quarters of this Congress. Over the first six quarters it increased by only 0.6 percent.

Story continues below…

The good news for Obama is that Hibbs admits his method might not be foolproof.

His model, he says, is designed to explain what outside factors impact mid-term elections, rather than "deliver optimal predictions."

AFP/The Local (news@thelocal.se)

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Your comments about this article

09:44 October 16, 2010 by dwb5555
Hej Everyone to go along with this story

Join the john Stewart rally4sanityandmarch4fear in Stockholm


We need some one to organize it.
11:35 October 16, 2010 by Audrian
A better predictor of Obama doom are a number surveys, which were conducted recently and showed the approximate numbers of parliamentary seats that will be lost to the democrates. These surveys have never been wrong in a recent memory.
17:24 October 16, 2010 by Tennessee Thunder
John Stewart ia an A-Hole
18:52 October 16, 2010 by Nemesis
I hope this idiot is proven 100% wrong.
20:34 October 16, 2010 by GefleFrequentFlyer
I could give you about 100 reasons other than measured disposable income on why Obama is going be neutered in November.
20:55 October 16, 2010 by the old rang
And objection to the statement:

The Gothenburg University affiliated researcher who studied data from elections dating from 1950 to 2006, predicts Democrats will lose 45 seats in the House of Representatives, putting them in the minority and badly stymieing Obama's ability to govern.

Rather, that such a defeat in congress, would stymie further destruction of the US Economy
21:07 October 16, 2010 by Zoolander428
Without getting in to who is right or wrong, or which political view point is correct...

Obama was elected on the idea of change... none of which has happened, unless you include:

-A healthcare system which now covers more people, but is no less expensive.

-Likely rise in taxes for virtually everyone, including those making less than 250k (through not extending current tax legislation)

-A broken promise of peace, America is still at war

-The economy is doing no better, and the housing problem is getting worse.

-The "image" of a poor response to the gulf oil spill (when in reality, it was lack of action from many previous administrations and private companies... not his fault)

-and many many more...

So with all those, along with whatever analysis these guys want to make, I highly doubt he'll get re-elected. Although, it all depends on who the Republicans pick. Chances are, we'll elect whoever we hate less...
22:37 October 16, 2010 by randyt
The problems in America go back to at least Reagan. Regulations in every industry including the financial crooks have been gutted. Labor and it's unions have been gutted. Wages adjusted for inflations have not increased. Our distribution of wealth to the top 5% is beyond the Gilded Age, just prior to the Great Depression. A party, Republican, built on the racism of the old south has been in near total control for over 40 years and now is about to take back control of half the government. We are all but doomed to go into another great depression for 90% of Americans, sorry to say.

Back in 2008 my worry was tha electing Obama would only end up placing the blame of the Bush years and their resulting economic melt down on him. In a way it would have been better for McCain to have been elected, at least then the collapse would be blamed on the correct conservative parties.
02:07 October 17, 2010 by GefleFrequentFlyer

The above article "research" is bunk for more reasons than I care to touch.

Call it what you want, but america is a capitalist, right of center country, always has been and always will be. Obama took the wheel and crashed it into the left hand side ditch. There is no disputing this, even from his old cheerleaders. This was his serious error. Add in his unpresidential "style" and being absolutely tone deaf, he's lost it all, very quickly.

But, in the grand scheme of things, Obama was nothing but a Democratic shill. They used him (and in turn, deep sixed his political career) knowing the backlash would be strong and took the risk and jammed as many unpopular policies as possible before the 2 year congressional correction puts a stop to it. Clever, but such a ever lasting toxic way of getting legacy ideology in place. The only interesting part is, the Democrats had no plan to counter the correction, as they knew it would come. They must have sullied themselves into honestly thinking america, like Mikey, would "like it" once they ate it.

As you correctly elude to, in making such an egregious error, and gambling away the foundation of what makes america, america, it will take many, many years for the independent voting block to again trust the Democrats. The Republicans will spend the next 6 or so years dismantling these disastrous laws, agencies, taxes, errors, so basically, our country has been put 8 years behind. This constant back and forth is damaging , and the ability to bridge gaps is why Reagan was such a great president (and ruined Ford, as he was caught in the crossfire, years too early).

The US needed a president of fortitude at a very difficult time, but instead, he chose to play on peoples emotions.

You repeat the issue of "distributed wealth". How about you voluntarily donate all of your wealth and salary to the government agency of your choice.

You say Republicans where built on racism of the south. You mean to say that is a different republican party that freed the slaves in the south? Or is the Democratic party that of Governor Faubus who opposed the Little Rock 9? I'm really confused on who is supposed to play the role of racist here. I know it's a rule out of the Liberal Playbook to turn everything into a race issue, even when it isn't, so help me out here.

You mention "unions have been gutted". So funny. As if unions are somehow necessary. Union membership is gutted because they have become redundant, outmoded and blatant political vehicles that the vast majority of america disdains. Have you ever spoke to a union member? You'd think they were a character out of "The Jungle". In the 18th century.

I need no vindication to whether my views are correct or incorrect, because the tide leading up to, and the floatsam after the election speaks for itself. If you think otherwise, you must be living under a rock.
06:45 October 17, 2010 by Typical Whitey
The researcher is wrong. Rasmusen polls show at least 55 seats being added to the Republican aisle. Thank God. Maybe even more. Plus the Senate is in play too.

Average Americans want to stop the Communist Obama. He and the democrats have quadrupled the budget deficit of W's ($400B vs. $1.2Trillion) in less than 2 years. They are bankrupting the American economy - on purpose. The Tea Party will succeed on November 2nd.
19:21 October 17, 2010 by mikewhite
I'm sure they put "swedish model" into the headline to tempt in readers expecting something else ...
19:57 October 17, 2010 by americanska
yea..nemisis hopes american's will accept this halt to economic growth. well we aren't europe, we like liberty, and money and freedom. i know you guys had a good time hoping we'd come down to your level. but your pipe dream is over, so you better start learning how to compete.

obama and his party are going to be out of power as soon as constitutionally possible.
03:15 October 18, 2010 by GefleFrequentFlyer
Case of the disappearing comments again?
14:54 October 21, 2010 by Syftfel
Let's hope that our naked Marxist in the White House and his hordes of useless, tax-and-spend, dems suffer a severe blow on November 2nd. The US needs to get back on track and assume its leadership role in the world.
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