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Sweden demands better weather forecasts

TT/The Local/kh · 5 Mar 2011, 08:03

Published: 05 Mar 2011 08:03 GMT+01:00

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The state has now ruled that at least 85 percent of forecasts in one year must be accurate.

But according to Carlgren, meteorologists can’t do it, reported the Dagens Nyheter (DN) newspaper.

Correct predictions are important when planning holidays and going out on the lake, he said, and on Friday the Minister went to Norrköping to discuss the problems with the weather institute.

"I, like all others who use their weather forecasts, want this to work well," Carlgren told the TT news agency.

Last year every sixth full-day prognosis was wrong, well below the agreed rate for good quality.

Carlgren said that it was not just about planning swimming outings and ski vacations but that correct predictions are also important for crisis management and infrastructure.

SMHI has forecasted weather better before, it seems.

Last year, meteorologists at the government weather agency missed 33 percent of gale warnings compared with 22 percent in 2008.

SMHI General Director Lena Pour pledged to invest in more accurate information.

“Given that we did not reach our goals I have issued a mandate to those who make the forecasts that they actually have to improve the quality," she said to TT.

Story continues below…

To meet the Environment Minister's expectations, SMHI has enlisted the help of experts from abroad, consulting both with Norway and the United Kingdom.

SMHI is a government agency under the Ministry of the Environment and offers services such as general forecasts and weather warnings, simulations and analyses, statistics, climate studies and contracted research among others.

TT/The Local/kh (news@thelocal.se)

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Your comments about this article

09:20 March 5, 2011 by HYBRED
It's no secret that weather forecasting sucks. But at the same time when these meteorologist start talking about climate change, governments and people take there word like it was etched in stone. So with no credibility on forecasting the weather in the next five minutes, everything else is bunk,
10:20 March 5, 2011 by William Sachsen-Coburg-Gotha
Can't we just demand better weather?
10:34 March 5, 2011 by planet.sweden
Andreas Carlgren should check the BBC's weather site, in my experience they are around 99 percent accurate for Sweden.

10:37 March 5, 2011 by Stickeroo
Damn immigrants, bringing their unpredictable weather here with them.
10:39 March 5, 2011 by booka
Next headline...... SMHI hiring psychics
12:35 March 5, 2011 by millionmileman
This is the proof of the Global Warming scam. Al Gore should return his Nobel Peace Prize.
13:09 March 5, 2011 by HYBRED
Al Gore and Michael Moore= Two of the biggest American jokes of all time.
13:10 March 5, 2011 by Rick Methven
Want good weather forecast s for Sweden

Ask the Norwegians

13:41 March 5, 2011 by dammen
I am reliant on the weather forecast but i rarely use SMHI as they are very inaccurate - I use the Norwegian sites and BBC - much better idea of what is going on. Perhaps we should all learn to read the clouds in school - like we used to have to - then perhaps we would also be able to see what is going to happen
16:17 March 5, 2011 by kenny8076
i am confused, if these people are the ones who are wrong, how are you saying Al Gore and Michael Moore are wrong? Thast really bizarre. They never stated HOW these meterologists where wrong..... just that they WHERE wrong........ nothing but trolls on this site
17:23 March 5, 2011 by wxman
Kenny, I'm a meteorologist of 35 years and a climatologist the last 28 years. Weather modeling techniques leave a lot to be desired. First of all, there aren't enough samples taken of the upper atmosphere often enough, and with the density needed for the models to be truly effective. The point about Al Gore and other useful idiots is, if the models struggle to provide an accurate forecast out 72 hours, how do you suppose they are capable of providing accurate climate shifts out 50 years on a global scale? YOU are the troll.
19:55 March 5, 2011 by mojofat

Because longer term trends are easier to model than very local and very short-term occurrences. Just like we can predict trends for people killed in auto accidents, but can't very accurately predict where and when those accidents will occur.

Climate change is a fact. Most of these naysayers are the same clowns who argue against evolution as well.

There are only a few places on earth where a meteorologies is going to have 85% accuracy consistently...for example, L.A.. The weather here, though, is too turbulent though I think to seriously expect 85% on a 6 day forecast.
20:16 March 5, 2011 by wxman

Very long range climate models still depend on accurate date to even approach an definative prediction. Do you realize that there has been no warming planet-wide since 1995? Do you also know that, as a test of the model's robustness, when data from the 70s and 80s was entered into the model, the model did not accurately predict the current climate condition? This means the model failed the first and most important test, and that is "validity". Before commenting, you might want to at least have an equivalent background in geosciences and statistical analysis as the person you challenge. Better luck next time.
08:22 March 6, 2011 by eppie

haha by writing this '''if the models struggle to provide an accurate forecast out 72 hours, how do you suppose they are capable of providing accurate climate shifts out 50 years on a global scale?''''

you show that you are lying and not a meteorologist at all.

Maybe you are a weather enthousiast, but your remark showed you don't have a scientific background (see mojofats reply to you)
12:04 March 7, 2011 by flintis
Weather forecasting is easy in Sweden, we live in the North, in winter it's cold so expect snow & freezing temperatures, in spring it can be warm, summer is changeable so don't expect too much sun, autumn can be cold & windy. Thats what you get living up here, if you don't like it I'm sure there's a way out, use it.

If Al Gore is so concerned about global warming, why is he flying all over to conferences??

Has he never heard of telephone conferencing?
19:07 March 7, 2011 by mojofat

The willful ignorance of the climate change deniers never fails to astonish me.

"According to NOAA and NASA data, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4ºF in the last 100 years. The eight warmest years on record (since 1850) have all occurred since 1998, with the warmest year being 2005. Most of the warming in recent decades is very likely the result of human activities."

You can find this in the "Basic Information" section of the US EPA Government website:


If you dig your head out of the bible, your rear, or wherever it's been that it's been misled to believe that climate change isn't real...or that there hasn't been any planet-wide warming since '95 (when, actually as you can see above, the eight warmest years on record have occurred since '98)....maybe you'll come to see the light. If not, well...we're all doomed anyway.
20:58 March 7, 2011 by wxman
This was quoted 10 years ago by one of the much vaunted AGW proponents, Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, "within a few years winter snowfall will become 'a very rare and exciting event'". Tell that to the children in Britain who, this year alone, saw more snow than their parents or grandparents ever saw in a lifetime.

I already explained that the climate model did NOT pass the validation testing, when data 30 years hence was ingested and the model failed to predict the present climate conditions, it proved itself invalid. It's also a FACT that there has been no warming at all since the warmest year 1998. Not an opinion, a fact. And yes, I am both a meteorologist and climatologist, but I do my own research. I don't rely on politically influenced tools like the EPA or NASA for honest science. Both are headed by political leftists with an agenda for carbon credit sales to increase their coffers. They aren't scientists, they're lawyers. And as anyone should know, lawyers aren't bright enough to do well in disiplines such as science, math and statistics.
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