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Forecasters promise another harsh winter

Rebecca Martin · 9 Sep 2011, 09:31

Published: 09 Sep 2011 09:31 GMT+02:00

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”It is true that they generally follow each other,” said meteorologist Lisa Frost from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) to daily Aftonbladet.

According to experts, the last two winters have been the coldest for the last few decades and statistics from the institute all point to cold winters coming in threes.

”I don't know why this happens. My personal belief is that it is coincidence,” Frost told the paper.

However, according to the paper, looking at the existing statistics,cold spells seem to last for approximately 3.5 years on average.

The three extremely cold winters 1940-43, during the war, were followed by four very clement winters. Since then, the weather would seem to have followed this 3.5 year pattern.

Despite this, meteorologist Martin Hedberg at forecaster site klart.se agrees with Frost that coincidence probably plays a large part in the weather's fluctuations between cold and clement winters.

”We are so trained as humans in seeing patterns, that we see them even when it is only coincidence,” Hedberg told Aftonbladet.

However, it is not just statistics that point to another cold winter to follow the last two. Global forecasts are also showing weather activity to indicate that temperatures will be lower than normal this winter season.

”While it is still quite early to make confident winter predictions, an initial analysis suggests that a winter closer to what was observed in 2008-09 might be in the offing. It may not be as severe as the last two winters,” head meteorologist at US forecaster WSI, Todd Crawford, said in a statement.

Story continues below…

WSI is forecasting a clement start to the autumn, followed by below average temperatures across the northern hemisphere this winter.

For the time being however, folks in Sweden can look forward to a weekend with summer temperatures in the south and fair weather in many parts of Sweden before unsteady weather reaches the country again next week.

Rebecca Martin (rebecca.martin@thelocal.se)

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Your comments about this article

12:25 September 9, 2011 by Rossminster
"Sweden To Have Cold Winter"

In further news, his Holiness The Pope has declared that he is indeed a follower of Catholicism.

And finally, a bear has shat in the woods.
13:06 September 9, 2011 by stupr

13:19 September 9, 2011 by McChatter
Judging by the amount of berries here in Skåne this year, we are indeed in for another hard winter.
14:08 September 9, 2011 by Mib
Stick your finger in the air and then guess.....that is the definition of a weather expert. They can't even predict next weeks weather very well, so I can't see how they can a few months away. Well at least they have about a 50% chance.
14:18 September 9, 2011 by Rick Methven
"They can't even predict next weeks weather very well"

Never mind next week, they can not predict what is going to happen 4 hours in advance. Last year SMHI insisted that the weather in Norrköping was dry when their own instruments on their web site said 5mm of rain had fallen in the last hour. 5mm in an hour means that it is p*ssing down. As they are based in Norrköping, all the idiots had to do was stick their head out of the window instead of keeping it up their backsides. They even have the nerve to charge for specific forecasts for people like farmers, who end up harvesting in the pouring rain.
15:40 September 9, 2011 by Ben Gipsat
Weather expert Lisa Frost????

And I'm Neil Down the priest!
15:52 September 9, 2011 by Svensksmith
And I'm Ben Dover.
15:56 September 9, 2011 by Ben Gipsat
Not Phill McKracken?
16:34 September 9, 2011 by Ben Gipsat
I always wanted to be a psychoanalyst when I was Jung! Erm...I'll get my coat...taxi for one!
16:37 September 9, 2011 by Svensksmith
How about Heywood Jablomi?
19:59 September 9, 2011 by Grokh
@SIGMUND FREUD you idiot, al gore global warming is about climate change and extreme temperatures, Sweden had a really hot summer now we are gona have a harsh winter....

Extreme weather aka either too cold or too warm .has been happening nonstop and idiots like you think its a hoax because the designated term has warming in it, well guess what genius the more warm it is the more the poles melt and the more cold extreme weather it generates. but if you dont believe in it go live in china for a week and breathe in their healthy air since polution doesnt exist either -_-x
01:44 September 10, 2011 by David S
Yes Sigmund, you are an idiot.

With regard the article, I'm wondering if "head meteorologist at US forecaster WSI, Todd Crawford" was talking about North America or Sweden in his prediction?
21:35 September 10, 2011 by wakak
Dear Rebecca,

You may be a great journalist for Thelocal.se. However, you probably lived too long in Sweden. Do you really mean it when you write in your last paragraph that Swedes can look forward to 'summer temperatures' ... which turn out to be 18°C at best. When was the last time you went in September to Italy, Spain, South of France, or even Switzerland?
04:36 September 11, 2011 by Grokh

Put your hands over your ears, and close your eyes to any of the facts anyone else tells you and you will keep being an ignorant happy tool.

You babbled about me and my personality just from calling you an idiot and explaining to you why.

If i need a shrink, then man you shouldn't be loose in the streets.

"Climate change is something that not even God has been able to combat "

i guess that makes humans more powerfull than your fairy tale god, because humans have been "combating" climate change since before time, but then again you wouldn't know that as you have not even evolved into a neanderthal probably because you dont believe in evolution.... it fits you... fits you perfectly.

And you just graduated from idiot, now you're a moron aswell.
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