How Swedes would vote if an election were held today

A new opinion poll from Sweden's biggest statistics agency suggests that the country's centre-left political bloc has doubled its lead on the centre-right opposition in the past six months.

How Swedes would vote if an election were held today
From left, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of the Social Democrats, Moderate leader Anna Kinberg Batra, Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt and the Christian Democrats' Ebba Busch Thor. Photo: Maja Suslin/T

Released on Thursday, Statistics Sweden's so-called Political Party Preference Survey suggests that if an election were to be held today, the current coalition government would receive 33.7 percent of the votes – which would see them land at 41.4 percent with the Left Party's presumed backing in parliament.

That compares to the 37.9 percent who would vote for the four centre-right Alliance parties – the Moderates (M), the Centre Party (C), the Liberals (L) and the Christian Democrats (KD). However, only 3.1 percent said they would vote for the Christian Democrats, which means the party would not make it past the 4-percent barrier to get into parliament.

A total of 17.5 percent of respondents told pollsters they would throw their support behind the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD).

The figures mean that the ruling Social Democrat-Green coalition, if you also take into account the support of the Left Party in parliament, now has a lead of 3.5 percentage points on the main four-party opposition – double what they got in the last Statistics Sweden survey in May.

This does not mean they have cause to cheer. Support for both the Social Democrats (S) and the Green Party (MP) has dropped slightly in the past six months and 29.2 percent and 4.5 percent of voters, respectively, now support the two parties. However, according to Statistics Sweden, the decrease is within the margin of error.

It said the main reason behind the increased lead is that the Moderates – who are the biggest party in the Alliance opposition – have fallen by 1.9 percentage points to 22.8 percent in the new poll.

However, if you look at the November poll compared to Sweden's general election in 2014, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are the big winners, increasing their support by 4.6 percentage points to 17.5 percent, followed by the Left Party, up by 2 percentage points on autumn 2014.

The Green Party, which is a member of Sweden's government for the first time, has seen its support fall by 2.4 percentage points since the general election – losing more than a third of their 2014 voters.

READ ALSO: 'SD could break 20 percent barrier in next election'

The figures show how much support for the parties has increased/decreased since the 2014 election. The column on the right shows support for 'others'. Photo: SCB/Statistics Sweden

A total of 8,952 respondents took part in Statistics Sweden's survey, which asked the question “What party would you vote for if a parliamentary election were to be held in the coming days?”


Koran burnings by Danish far-Right extremist no longer causing riots, Swedish police say

Swedish police said there have been no disturbances associated with the Koran burning by Danish far-Right extremist Rasmus Paludan and his party Stram Kurs ("Hard Line") this week around Stockholm, unlike the riots seen over Easter.

Koran burnings by Danish far-Right extremist no longer causing riots, Swedish police say

Paludan and his party have been holding demonstrations this week involving burning the Koran, in what Paludan describes as an “election tour” ahead of standing in Sweden’s parliamentary election in September.

However Swedish newswire TT has reported that few people have seemed to care about the shock tactics used and police have confirmed that no major disturbances have occurred as a result of the demonstrations.

This is in stark contrast to the demonstrations over Easter, which resulted in riots involving vandalism and violence aimed primarily at police. A total of 26 police officers were injured and at least 40 people were arrested.

“The police did not anticipate the extent of the protests and the enormous violence that the Easter riots brought with them. I don’t know if we have seen anything similar in Sweden in modern times,” Sten Widmalm, political scientist at Uppsala University, told newswire TT.

Widmalm says there are now fewer people turning up at Paludan’s demonstrations because of the number of people charged over the Easter riots. He also noted the increased police presence and adapted resources by the police, which has stopped anyone getting close to using violence.

Everyone that TT newswire spoke to a demonstration in Fittja torg, said they knew Paludan’s aim was to provoke people.

“I am a Muslim myself and I don’t care. For a true Muslim, all religions are equal. His message is to create conflict and irritation. You shouldn’t give him that,” Himmet Kaya told TT. 

According to Widmalm, there is nothing to indicate that Paludan will be successful at the Swedish election.

“On the other hand, I think that Stram Kurs has influenced Swedish politics very much in such a way that it has exposed large gaps in society. I think awareness of these has increased, due to the Easter riots – although it’s nothing to thank Paludan for.”

In Sweden, you must be a Swedish citizen in order to be elected to parliament. Paludan’s father is Swedish, and he applied for and was granted Swedish citizenship in 2020.

In order to enter the Swedish parliament, Paludan must win at least four percent of the vote in the upcoming election.

In 2019, Paludan stood in Danish parliamentary elections, achieving only 1.8 percent of the vote. Under Denmark’s proportional representation system, parties must achieve at least two percent of the vote in order to enter the Danish parliament.