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New survey: Here’s how Swedes would vote if an election were held today

A new political survey shows a boost for the Christian Democrats at the expense of Sweden's other right-wing parties.

New survey: Here's how Swedes would vote if an election were held today
The leader of the Christian Democrats, Ebba Busch-Thor. Photo: Jessica Gow/TT

The Christian Democrats improved their result the most in Statistics Sweden's major party sympathy survey, climbing 6.7 percentage points since Sweden's general election in September – and a whopping 10.1 percentage points compared to the same survey a year ago.

This would put the party at 13 percent of the vote if an election were held today, a significant share for what is normally one of the smaller right-wing parties in parliament.

The charisma of party leader Ebba Busch-Thor and her uncompromising stance on a number of issues appear to have won the party support. However, the party performed worse than expected in last month's European election, with 8.62 percent of the vote, after questions were raised over its views on abortion.

EUROPEAN ELECTION:

The Christian Democrats' gains in the new Statistics Sweden survey primarily came from former supporters of the Moderates – long seen as the leader of Sweden's centre-right bloc – and the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats.

Sweden's ruling centre-left party, the Social Democrats, were the winners of Statistics Sweden's party sympathy poll with 27.6 percent of respondents saying they would vote for them if an election were to be held today.


The new survey compared to the parties' results in the last Swedish parliamentary election. From left, Centre Party, Liberals, Moderates, Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens and Sweden Democrats. Photo: Statistics Sweden

The Sweden Democrats remained at more or less the same score as in September, but still overtook the Moderate Party, which dropped from 19.8 percent in the election to 16 percent today.

Sweden's 2018 election – followed by a long period without a government and tough negotiations – began a redrawing of the country's political map, and it is still not clear where the chips will ultimately fall.

The Centre Party and the Liberals' legislative pact with the Green Party and Social Democrats solved the government negotiation conflict, but infuriated its old Moderate and Christian Democrat partners.

READ ALSO: What does Sweden's government deal mean for internationals?

As for the Sweden Democrats, they have made no secret of the fact that they would like to be seen as part of a new conservative bloc with the Moderates and Christian Democrats. Such a bloc would get 46.1 percent of the vote if an election were held today, according to Statistics Sweden.

For the party sympathy survey, pollsters asked a total of 4,500 respondents in May which party they would vote for if a parliamentary election were to be held in the next few days.

Sweden's next general election will be held in September 2022.

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2022 SWEDISH ELECTION

Five of Sweden’s political parties planned to evade party financing laws

Five of the eight political parties in the Swedish parliament discussed evading party financing laws with a businessman secretly working with journalists, a new investigation by broadcaster TV4 has found.

Five of Sweden's political parties planned to evade party financing laws

“There’s every reason to demand moral and political responsibility,” political scientist Jonas Hinnfors said of how Sweden’s society should react to the investigation’s findings. “It’s a threat to democracy.”

The new law on donations to political parties which came into force in 201  dictates that parties must declare all donations received from private individuals or businesses. Donators can remain anonymous, byt only as long as their donation does not exceed 24,150 kronor (€2,281). Larger donations must be declared along with the name of the donor.

The Kalla Fakta team which produced the documentary hired two businessmen to call each parliamentary party and ask how they could donate half a million kronor, while staying anonymous. The conversations were recorded and meetings filmed with a hidden camera.

Three parties – the Centre Party, the Left Party and the Green Party – said that it wasn’t possible for the donor to remain anonymous. 

But the other five parties – the Social Democrats, the Moderates, the Sweden Democrats, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals – suggested different ways of getting around the requirements.

Christian Democrat press secretary Peter Kullgren suggested splitting up donations and donating to individual candidates so that each donation remained under the legal limit.

Another method, proposed by Sweden Democrat head of finance Lena-Karin Lifvenhjelm, consisted of giving the money to another individual who would donate it under their name instead.

Magdalena Agrell, the Social Democrat’s head of finance, discussed finding someone else to act as a front in recorded telephone conversations.

The chairman and communications chief of the Social Democrat’s youth organisation, Diyar Cicek and Youbert Aziz, suggested that the businessman instead create a foundation to donate the money.

The Moderate Party’s ombudsman Patrik Haggren proposed that donations could be sent from different members of the businessman’s family in order to remain anonymous.

Lisa Flinth, who is responsible for leadership support in the Liberal Party, also proposed this method, providing the contact details of a middleman, the consultant Svend Dahl.

Dahl first proposed that his company send an invoice of half a million kronor to the businessman, but later suggested that the money be transferred to him to donate to the Liberals in his name, thereby avoiding having to pay tax.

“It’s important you keep yourself anonymous,” Dahl said in Kalla Fakta‘s recordings of conversations with the undercover businessman.

Dahl is a political scientist and has previously been head of media organisation Liberala Nyhetsbyrån.

Flinth was well aware of the fact that the method undermines the aim of the law, telling the businessman in a telephone conversation that it was very important that nothing could be traced back to the party.

“It could have serious consequences,” she said. “We don’t really have any margins when it comes to credibility.”

“If there was an article about this in the middle of a heated election campaign and we miss the threshold for getting in to parliament, I would never forgive myself,” she said.

Political scientist Jonas Hinnfors, who commented on the conversation for the Kalla Fakta team, said he was shocked after hearing it.

“They know what the point of the new legislation is,” he told Kalla Fakta. “Going against that is political dynamite.”

In a written comment on their website, the Liberals’ vice-party secretary Gustav Georgson stated that the party would not use Dahl’s consulting services again and that it “takes the statements made by Kalla Fakta seriously and will act forcefully to avoid similar situations happening again.”

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