Who would Swedes vote for if an election were held today?

Who would Swedes vote for if an election were held today?
Would Swedish voters throw their support behind Prime Minister Stefan Löfven's party, or someone else? Photo: Sören Andersson/TT
How has the coronavirus crisis affected support for the various Swedish parties? A new political survey may help shed some light on the issue.

The ruling Social Democrat party would receive 33.7 percent of the vote if an election were held today, according to Statistics Sweden's new survey – an increase of 8.7 percentage units compared to the previous survey in November and 5.4 percentage units more compared to the last election in September 2018.

The anti-immigration Sweden Democrats dropped 5.6 percentage units from the November survey and is now back at roughly its election result (17.1 percent in the May survey; 17.5 percent in the election).

Sweden's largest opposition party, the conservative Moderates, has also increased its support during the crisis, albeit not by as much as the centre-left government. A total of 20.1 percent told Statistics Sweden they would vote for the party today, 0.3 percentage points up on the election and 1.7 on the previous survey.

The Liberal party would meanwhile lose its seats in parliament if an election were held today, with only 3.3 percent of respondents telling Statistics Sweden they would throw their support behind the party.

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Centre Party (C), Liberal Party (L), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrat Party (KD), Social Democrat Party (S), Left Party (L), Green Party (MP), Sweden Democrat Party (SD). From Statistics Sweden's explanation: “* The change is statistically significant. ** The estimates for November 2019 were produced using the method introduced in May 2020, which is why they differ from previously published estimates for November 2019.” Source: Statistics Sweden

The survey was carried out between April 29th and May 27th, with a national random sample of 9,208 eligible voters, who were asked: “Which party would you vote for if a parliamentary election was held in the next few days?”

Excluding people who could not be reached or did not wish to take part, the results were based on 4,888 respondents in total.

Statistics Sweden's party preference survey is one of the biggest political opinion polls in Sweden, but other recent surveys suggest that an initial boost for the government in the early days of the corona crisis may be on the wane, as political friction reemerges in Sweden following a period of non-partisan collegiality.

According to pollsters Novus, 45 percent of just over 1,100 respondents told a survey in late May-early June that they trusted the government's ability to handle the pandemic, compared to 63 percent in April.


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