Here’s how Swedes would vote if an election were held today

Sweden's governing Social Democrats have seen a statistically significant fall in support this year, according to a major party sympathy survey published on Wednesday.

Here's how Swedes would vote if an election were held today
Prime Minister Stefan Löfven and Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson in parliament. The leaders of the Sweden Democrats and Christian Democrats are seated. Photo: Henrik Montgomery/TT

The survey, published by Statistics Sweden, shows that if Swedes went to the polls today the centre-left Social Democrats would get 29.4 percent of the vote. That's down by 4.3 points from the last such survey in May, but still up on the last election when they received 28.3 percent, the party's worst result in over a century.

The high grade in May was interpreted as a sign of public support for the government's handling of the coronavirus crisis, while recent opinion polls have shown a dip in confidence as the number of cases and deaths rises in Sweden.

Their junior coalition partner, the Green Party, remained relatively steady on 4.2 percent, which keeps it above the 4 percent needed for parliamentary representation.

Meanwhile, the right-of-centre Moderate Party would get 22.1 percent of the vote, 2 points more than in May. The party secretary, Gunnar Strömmer, said that the likely reasons for their gains were a focus on problems like crime and unemployment as well as dissatisfaction with the government.

“The government seems to be busy blaming everyone else. If it is not the municipalities' fault, then it is the regions' fault, if it is not the regions' fault, then it is the authorities' fault and if it is not the authorities' fault, it is the Swedish administrative model's fault,” Strömmer told the TT newswire.

The centre-right Centre and Liberal parties received 7.6 and 3 percent respectively, putting the Liberals below the parliamentary threshold. These parties were previously part of a coalition with the Moderates and Christian Democrats, but since the last election have struck a deal with the Social Democrats and Greens to allow them to govern in exchange for certain policy points.

The Christian Democrats were at 5.4 percent in the November survey, down by 1 point from May. As for the right-wing Sweden Democrats, they were up just 0.5 points from May, at 17.6 percent. And the Left Party was at 9.3 percent, up by 1.1 points from May.

Sweden's next general election will be held in September 2022.

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Sweden Elects: The latest political news as the election campaign kicks off

What's Sweden talking about this week? In The Local's Sweden Elects newsletter, editor Emma Löfgren rounds up some of the main talking points ahead of the Swedish election.

Sweden Elects: The latest political news as the election campaign kicks off

In an interview that could have jeopardised his job a decade ago, Social Democrat Immigration Minister Anders Ygeman’s suggestion in DN that there should be a 50 percent cap on non-Nordic immigrants in troubled areas of Swedish cities showed how the debate has shifted in recent years.

That said, his comments did not go without criticism. The Left Party slammed them as “racist”, the Greens and the Centre Party also criticised them, and so did the Moderates and some within the Social Democrats.

Ygeman himself said that he had been misunderstood, that he had never meant it as an actual proposal, and that factors such as crime and unemployment were far more important in terms of integration.

“But of course segregation is not just class-based, it also has an ethnic dimension. If you have areas where almost everyone is from other countries, it’s harder to learn Swedish, and if it’s harder to learn Swedish, it’s harder to get a job,” he told public broadcaster SVT.

What do you think? Email me if you want to share your thoughts.

Campaign posters and a new poll

The centre-left Social Democrats and the Moderates, the largest right-wing opposition party, both unveiled their campaign posters last week, which I guess means that the summer holiday lull is officially over and the election campaign is now definitely under way. Just over a month to go.

It’s interesting that the Social Democrats are clearly trying to turn this into a “presidential” style campaign, taking advantage of Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s overwhelming popularity compared to the Moderates’ Ulf Kristersson, whose reception among voters is lukewarm.

A poll by the DN newspaper and Ipsos a month ago suggested that 37 percent of voters want to see Andersson as prime minister, compared to 22 percent who preferred Kristersson (12 percent preferred the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats’ leader Jimmie Åkesson, and the other party leaders did not get more than four percent each).

Andersson is in the unique position where voters like her way more than they like her party – a new opinion poll by Demoskop suggests that 28.7 percent would vote for the Social Democrats if the election was held today (the Moderates would get 20.3 percent). The same poll has all the right-wing parties with a slight majority compared to the left-wing parties.

Anyway, the Social Democrats’ campaign posters cover pensions, schools (specifically, limiting profit-making free schools), crime and law and order. Climate change is conspicuously absent, but a party spokesperson told reporters it will be more prominent in its social media campaigns.

When Kristersson, on the other hand, spoke at his party’s event to kick off their election campaign, he emphasised how he’s got a viable coalition on his side – a jibe at the Social Democrats, who will struggle to get their partners (specifically the Centre and Left parties) to collaborate.

He also reiterated his praise for the Sweden Democrats, and The Local asked several experts if the Moderates are the same party that fought the 2018 election, when Kristersson promised Holocaust survivor Hédi Fried he would not cooperate with the Sweden Democrats after the election.

Election pledges

The Local’s Becky Waterton has looked at the election pledges of Sweden’s four main parties, the Social Democrats, Moderates, Sweden Democrats and Centre Party. Click here to read her guide, it’s a really useful roundup.

And what about Covid? Is Sweden’s handling of the pandemic not going to be a talking point in this election? No, at least not if the parties have their way. The Social Democrats run the government, but most of the regions (who are in charge of healthcare) are run by right-wing coalitions. So from a strictly realpolitik perspective, no party is able to attack another without putting themselves at risk of becoming a target. Best forget about it.

In other political news…

… a Sweden Democrat member of parliament has been accused of sending unsolicited dick pics to women, the Moderates want to legalise altruistic surrogacy in Sweden, the Christian Democrats want a national scheme to improve maternity care, the Liberals want to make it harder for people with a criminal record to become Swedish citizens, and Centre Party leader Annie Lööf hit the campaign trail just before the weekend by pledging to reject any proposal for raised taxes after the election.

Sweden Elects is a weekly column by Editor Emma Löfgren looking at the big talking points and issues in the Swedish election race. Members of The Local Sweden can sign up to receive the column plus several extra features as a newsletter in their email inbox each week. Just click on this “newsletters” option or visit the menu bar.