According to a new scenario published by the agency, the emergence of Omicron BA.2, which is roughly 30 percent more infectious than the previous Omicron BA.1 variant, will lead to a new wave of infections as it becomes dominant in Sweden. 

“The scenario shows a possible development where cases of Covid-19 once again begin to grow somewhat, reaching a peak in the middle of May,” said Lisa Brouwers, acting head of unit at the agency.  

In the scenario the roughly 25 people a day currently being treated in hospital for Covid-19 in Sweden will rise to around 60 a day by mid-May, after which the agency expects rates to decline again. 

At the peak in mid-May, the agency estimates that around 3,500 people will be infected with the new variant a day, although it does not expect this to lead to a significant health consequences. 

Because of the high immunity the population has gained through vaccination and that many people have recently contracted Covid-19, the burden on healthcare under our calculations will be relatively limited compared to previous peaks of infection, the agency said. 

“The Public Health Agency does not consider that any new infection control measures are needed at this point, but it’s important to keep up preparatory measures in the healthcare and elderly care sector, and to continue efforts to maintain high vaccination levels,” Brouwers said. 

The agency predicts that when summer weather leads to people spending more time outside, the new Omicron BA.2 wave will subside, reaching even lower levels after people leave work and school for their summer holidays.