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Are Swedish property prices starting to stabilise?

Property prices went up in Stockholm in the first two weeks of August after months of decline - could this mean that property prices are starting to stabilise in Sweden?

Are Swedish property prices starting to stabilise?
Photo: Jessica Gow/Scanpix/TT

How much have prices gone up in Stockholm?

New figures from analysts Valueguard show a price increase of 1.4 percent for apartments (bostadsrätter) in the capital region in the two first weeks in August, compared to July’s figures.

In July, prices declined by 3.5 percent for apartments and 2.8 percent for houses.

What about in Gothenburg and Malmö?

Gothenburg saw a drop in July of 3 percent for apartments and 2.3 percent for houses. In the first half of August, prices went down by a further 0.7 percent.

“In Gothenburg, prices have dropped about 6-8 percent since their peak, more for apartments and a bit less for houses and properties in a higher price class,” Sven-Erik Kristensen, CEO of Bjurfors Gothenburg, said in a press statement.

“You could say that the extra ‘pandemic effect’ we saw during 2021 has gone. That’s to be expected and is entirely reasonable considering how the economy has developed.”

In Malmö, apartment prices dropped 2.5 percent and house prices dropped 3.8 percent.

“Buyers and sellers are both very cautious and that’s obviously affecting prices, but also the number of sales. There haven’t been this many properties on the market since 2014,” Mattias Larsson, CEO of Bjurfors Skåne, said.

What does this mean for the rest of Sweden?

Stockholm is often seen as a trendsetter when it comes to the Swedish property market, with Bjurfors saying that these positive indicators could be a sign that things are getting better for the Swedish property market.

Across the country, the property market saw a 2.9 percent decline, or a 1.7 percent decline with seasonal changes taken into account.

Broken down into apartments and houses, that decline was 3.2 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, with seasonal changes factored in.

Kristensen from Bjurfors Gothenburg said that there had been some positive signs during the first half of August that things are changing in the Gothenburg market.

“In the beginning of August, there have been far more buyers at viewings than there were in June. There are also a lot more buyers who can see a possibility to get on to the property market at a lower price level.”

“It’s become a little easier for buyers and sellers to meet in the middle.”

Larsson from Bjurfors Skåne echoed his colleague in Gothenburg, saying that “now we’ve reached the middle of August, we can see that a number of key indicators are changing for the better.”

“The time it takes for a property to sell has halved from 30 days in July to 16 days, and we’re also seeing fewer prices being lowered.”

Does this mean prices are going to stop falling?

Probably not now, but they may stabilise in coming months, estate agents predict.

“My prediction is that the high supply will slowly decrease and we’ll have some stabilisation of house prices during the autumn,” Kristensen, from Bjurfors Gothenburg, said.

His colleague Christina Henriksson, head of Bjurfors Stockholm, was more cautious.

“Really, this just confirms what we’ve said previously.”

“You need to remember that the month of July is extremely affected by seasonal factors, where fewer properties are sold, so I don’t really want to draw too many conclusions based on these numbers.”

“It’s more important to see how August plays out, not least due to the fact that there’s a lot of supply. Are prices going to keep dropping or are buyers and sellers going to find each other and will there be a new balance in the market? That’s the question we’re asking ourselves.”

“The underlying need for housing is still very high,” Henriksson said.

“So, it would be very welcome if we saw a development over the autumn where buyers and sellers were more able to meet in the middle.”

“But, that presupposes that price expectations are realistic. Many sellers haven’t really adapted to the new market situation,” she said.

In Malmö, Matthias Larsson from Bjurfors Skåne was also cautious.

“I think we’re going to see prices continuing to fall, probably throughout autumn, before they start going up again.”

“There’s been a serious decline during the summer and the situation is still very unstable,” he added.

This could be the first sign of a more stable housing market, Bjurfors’ CEO Fredrik Kullman said.

“I think it looks a bit better today than it did just a few weeks ago,” he said.

“Supply is still increasing, but in a number of local markets, less homes are coming on to the market. This could be the first sign that we’re slowly getting closer to a better balance between supply and demand,” he said.

Member comments

  1. Not mentioned in the article is the impact and the anticipated impact of higher mortgage rates. It is hard to imagine that prices will stabilize in the short term if mortgage rates keep increasing.

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These are our readers’ top tips for buying a property in Sweden

Buying an apartment or house in Sweden can be a daunting process, but with rentals so hard to get, many foreigners end up taking the plunge. Here are the top tips from readers who have done it.

These are our readers' top tips for buying a property in Sweden

Get prepared! 

Most of the respondents to our survey stressed the importance of preparation. 

“Spend time on defining your requirements properly, including visits to different locations to narrow down your search,” advised Julian, a Brit living in Malmö. 

As well as working out your requirements, other participants argued, you should also get to grips with the way the bidding system works in Sweden, with one British woman recommending buyers “speak to professionals about the buying procedure”. One respondent went so far as to recommend hiring a buyers’ agent, something international employers sometimes provide for senior executives moving to Sweden. 

Elizabeth, a 26-year-old charity worker from South America, recommended that all buyers “learn to read a bostadsrättsförening årsredovisning”, the finance report for a cooperative housing block. (You can find The Local’s guide here.) 

Get to know the market 

Maja, an anthropologist from Hungary, said it was important to take time to get a feel for the market, suggesting buyers visit different areas to find the one that they like. 

“It will take 6-12 months easily,” she predicts. “Don’t rush. Visit the neighborhoods where you are thinking of buying.”
Others recommended spending time surfing Sweden’s two main housing websites, Hemnet and Booli, to get a better feel for how much different types of housing in different areas typically sell for, before starting to look seriously yourself, with one even recommending going to viewings before you have any intention of buying.  
“Start visiting houses and monitoring bids. That will give you a sense of the process,” recommends Shubham, 31, a software engineer from India.

Think about your expectations
While house prices have soared in Sweden’s cities over the past decade, the same is not the case in all rural areas, something some respondents thought buyers should take advantage of. “To buy a house at a lesser price, look at areas as far from urban areas as is possible for you and your family,” wrote Simon, a 61-year-old living in rural Sweden. 
Julian warned bidders against areas and types of homes that “will attract tens of ‘barnfamiljer’ (families with children), meaning “bidding wars will result”, pushing up the price. 
On the other hand, one respondent warned people to “avoid buying apartments in vulnerable areas, even though prices will be lower there”. 
An Italian buyer recommended looking at newly built apartments coming up for sale. 
Get a mortgage offer before your first serious viewing 
Getting a lånelöfte, literally “loan promise”, can be tricky for foreigners in Sweden, as our recent survey of banks’ policies showed. 
Shubham warned against applying for a loan promise from multiple banks, arguing that this can affect your credit rating if your finances are not otherwise good. He suggested using an umbrella site like Ordna Bolån and Lånekoll, although he warned that the payment they take from the ultimate mortgage provider might ultimately be taken from borrowers.  
Get to know the estate agents, but don’t necessarily trust them 
Gaurav, a sales manager based in Stockholm, recommended getting to know local estate agents in the area where you are planning to buy, as they might be able to direct you towards owners who are in a hurry to sell. “Those can be the best deals as you have greater chances to avoid bidding on such properties,” he argued. 
Maja, from Hungary, warned, however, against believing that the estate agent is on the buyer’s side. 
“You cannot really make friends with them, they work for commission and they will also try to raise the selling price,” she said. “It’s how they present you to the seller that matters. Seem like a serious buyer.” 

Should you try to make an offer before bidding starts? 
Morgan, a 33-year-old marketing manager from France, said it was worth studying the kommande (coming soon) section on Hemnet and Booli to spot houses and flats before they are formally put on the market. “Be alert. Book an appointment asap and get a private visit to reduce competition. If the apartment is what you’re looking for, make a reasonable offer with a condition to sign the contract in the next 24 hours,” he recommends. “You will cut the bidding frenzy and save money.”
Gaurav also recommended getting a private viewing and making an offer while the property was still off the market, as did Julian. 
“If you are lucky, you might find owners who are in a hurry to sell,” Julian said. “Those can be the best deals as you have greater chances to avoid bidding on such properties.” 
But other foreigners warned against bidding before a property is publicly put up for sale on housing websites, arguing that estate agents used this as a way of getting higher prices than they would expect to get at auction.  
“You are essentially negotiating directly with the owner, without finding out the actual market price via bidding,” argued a 31-year-old Indian business analyst. “Usually this will work only for an apartment not in top condition.” 
What to watch out for in the bidding process 
Morgan advised buyers to take what estate agents say about rival bidders with a pinch of salt. 
“Estate agents will play the competition card. Don’t fall for their trick and keep a cool head. Ask yourself if it really worth it before increasing a bid,” he wrote. 
In Sweden, it is possible to make a hidden bid, which is not disclosed to other bidders. One Indian software developer warned that estate agents would often claim that there was such a bid to pressure you. 
“The hidden bids are really confusing as you don’t know the bid placed,” he said. “It’s a trap to get higher bids. “
A 21-year-old Romanian agreed it was important to watch out for estate agents who try to rush or panic you. 
“[Look out for] those that try to rush you into it by saying stuff like ‘this will be gone by Monday, the owner wants to sell fast’, or if they don’t want to include a two-week period to have the property inspected as a clause in the contract,” she said. 
Maja recommended choosing an estate agency that required all bidders to supply their personal number, with all bids made public, “because other agencies might cheat that price rise”. 
“Don’t be the first bidder,” she added. “Keep your cool, and if the agent calls or messages, just hold on. There is no official end to the bidding. Only when you sign the contract. So the best game is to seem very serious but not stupid. You have a budget, and try to sign the contract the same day or the next if you are the highest bidder.” 
Is now a good time to buy? 
The respondents were, predictably, divided. 
“It’s risky for both sellers and buyers,” said Carl, a Swede who recently returned home from China. “The market seems to correlate pretty well with central banks raising interest rates. If that’s the case, then it’s still a sellers’ market since central bank [Riksbank] will continue to increase interest rates until 2024.” 
“It’s difficult to predict anything at the moment,” agreed Gaurav. “Prices should fall a bit but that’s not happening in all the areas. Avoid buying or selling if you can for a few months.” 
“I see there is no difference in buying in total cost. You can get a property at a lower price but end up paying more in interest and the price is the same in five to ten years,” said one Indian software engineer. “Buying is still better than renting.”