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2022 SWEDISH ELECTION

LATEST POLLS: Who is in the lead with two days to go until Sweden’s election?

Polls remain neck-and-neck just two days before Sweden's elections, with the right bloc narrowly in the lead. Here's a breakdown of the most recent polling figures.

LATEST POLLS: Who is in the lead with two days to go until Sweden's election?
Sweden's parliament, the Riksdag. Photo: Tim Aro/TT

Social Democrats

Still comfortably in the lead as Sweden’s largest party, the Social Democrats are on 29 percent of the vote in Wednesday’s SVT/Novus poll, an increase of 0.7 percent since 2018. This would give them 102 seats in parliament, two more than they currently hold.

This is a slight increase on Wednesday’s figures, where the Social Democrats were on 27.8 percent of the vote.

Sweden Democrats

After taking over from the Moderates as Sweden’s second-largest party in polls at the end of August, the Sweden Democrats are holding on to their lead and polled at 21 percent on Thursday, an increase of 3.5 percent since 2018. This would give them 74 seats in parliament if they receive the same amount of votes on Sunday, an increase of 12 since 2018.

This is a slight increase since Wednesday, where they were polling at 20.6 percent.

Moderates

Now at risk of becoming Sweden’s third-largest party after the election, the Moderates are polling at 18 percent, a drop of 1.8 percent since the 2018 election. This result would give them 64 seats in parliament, six fewer than they won in 2018.

On Wednesday, they were polling at 17.3 percent.

Centre

The Centre Party was polling at 7.5 percent of the vote in the most recent poll on Thursday, a drop of 1.1 percent since 2018. If it was to win this share of the vote on Sunday, its number of seats would drop by four, leaving it with 27.

This is a decrease from Wednesday’s figures, where it was polling at 8.6 percent.

Left

The Left Party is polling slightly lower than in 2018 – 7.4 percent of the vote. With this vote share it would lose two seats in parliament, leaving it with 26.

The Left was polling at 8 percent on Wednesday.

Christian Democrats

The Christian Democrats are polling at a similar level to last election: 5.8 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percent since 2018. This would give them two fewer seats in parliament, giving them a total of 20 seats.

This is a decrease from Wednesday’s figures, where the Christian Democrats were polling at 5.9 percent.

Greens

The Greens were at one point in the danger zone for winning under 4 percent of the vote and dropping out of parliament, although it appears now that they could be safe. They are polling at 5.2 percent with a margin of error of 0.8 percent, meaning they would be unlikely to receive less than 4.6 percent of the vote if the election were to be held today.

The Greens were polling at 5.7 percent on Wednesday.

If the Greens received 5.2 percent of the vote on Sunday this would be an increase of 0.8 percent since 2018, giving them an extra two seats, putting them on a total of 18.

Liberals

The Liberals also look like they may be safe. They are polling at 5.1 percent and have a margin of error of 0.8 percent, meaning the lower limit of their vote share is likely to be 4.3, just over the parliamentary threshold.

This is an increase since Wednesday, where they were polling at 4.8 percent and were at risk of dropping out of parliament.

If they were to win 5.1 percent of the vote, this would be a decrease of 0.4 percent since 2018. They would also lose two seats in parliament, putting them on a total of 18.

Left bloc

Although there are margins of error for each party and for each bloc as a whole meaning the vote could still go either way, the most recent polls put the left bloc (Social Democrats, Centre, Left and Greens) on 49.1 percent of the vote, an decrease of 0.2 percent since 2018. This would lower the government’s current one-seat majority by just two seats to 173 of parliament’s 349 seats.

On Wednesday, the left bloc were on 50.1 percent of the vote, which would win them 177 seats.

Right bloc

Again, the margins between the blocs are so tight that either side could still win. With that in mind, the most recent poll puts the right bloc (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals) on 49.9 percent of the vote, an increase of 0.8 percent since 2018. This would give the opposition 176 seats, two more than their current 174 seats.

On Wednesday, this bloc was on 48.6 percent of the vote, which would give them 172 seats, two fewer than they currently hold.

How do the margins of error affect this?

The margins of error, which vary for each party, mean that the results in this poll are correct with 95 percent accuracy, plus or minus the margin of error.

This means, using the Social Democrats as an example, with their 1.6 percent margin of error, that there is a 95 percent chance that the Social Democrats would receive between 27.4 percent of the vote and 30.6 percent of the vote, if the election were to be held on the same day as the poll.

The margins of error for each party on Thursday were as follows:

Social Democrats: 1.6 percent

Sweden Democrats: 1.5 percent

Moderates: 1.4 percent

Centre: 1 percent

Left: 0.9 percent

Christian Democrats: 0.8 percent

Greens: 0.8 percent

Liberals: 0.8 percent

New polling information is released daily around 3pm.

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2022 SWEDISH ELECTION

Sweden’s right-wing parties agree to bring back Norlén as Speaker 

The four parties backing Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson as prime minister on Sunday announced that they had agreed to keep the current Speaker, Andreas Norlén in place, when the role is put to a vote as parliament opens on Monday.

Sweden's right-wing parties agree to bring back Norlén as Speaker 

The parties won a three-seat majority over the bloc led by the incumbent Social Democrats in Sweden’s general election on September 11th, and are currently in the middle of negotiating how they will form Sweden’s next government. 

Sweden’s parliament meets at 11am for the official installation of the 349 MPs for this mandate period. The votes for the Speaker and three Deputy Speakers are the first item on the agenda, after which the parties each select their parliamentary leaders and then vote on who should chair each of the parliamentary committees. 

READ ALSO: What happens next as parliament reopens? 

In a joint press release announcing the decision, the parties also agreed that the Sweden Democrats would be given eight of the 16 chairmanships the bloc will have of parliamentary committees in the next parliament, and that MPs for all four parties would back Julia Kronlid, the Sweden Democrats’ Second Deputy Leader, as the second deputy Speaker, serving under Norlén. 

In the press release, the parties said that Norlén had over the last four years shown that he has “the necessary personal qualities and qualifications which the role requires”. 

The decision to retain Norlén, who presided over the 134 days of talks and parliamentary votes that led to the January Agreement in 2019, was praised by Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson. 

Norlén, she said in a statement, had “managed his responsibilities well over the past four years and been a good representative of Sweden’s Riksdag.” 

The decision to appoint Kronlid was opposed by both the Left Party and the Green Party, who said that she supported tightening abortion legislation, and did not believe in evolution.

The Green Party’s joint leader Märta Stenevi said that her party “did not have confidence in Julia Kronlid”, pointing to an interview she gave in 2014 when she said she did not believe that humans were descended from apes.

The party has proposed its finance spokesperson Janine Alm Ericson as a rival candidate. 

The Left Party said it was planning to vote for the Centre Party’s candidate for the post second deputy Speaker in the hope of blocking Kronlid as a candidate.

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