What Sweden's inflation tells us is in store for the interest rate

Emma Löfgren
Emma Löfgren - [email protected]
What Sweden's inflation tells us is in store for the interest rate
Electricity prices are lower in Sweden than they were this time last year. Photo: Janerik Henriksson/TT

Inflation in Sweden remained unchanged in October according to fresh figures, which could actually spell good news for the prospects of interest rates and household budgets.


Sweden’s yearly inflation rate according to the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 6.5 percent last month according to number-crunchers Statistics Sweden, the same as in September.

Inflation measured according to CPIF – the consumer price index with interest rates taken out of the equation – meanwhile rose slightly, from 4.0 percent in September to 4.2 percent in October.

Still, experts had on average predicted that CPI would rise to 6.6 percent, reports Bloomberg, and the CPIF also rose less than expected, so most seemed to agree that Tuesday’s news was positive. The CPIF-XE metric (CPIF inflation with energy prices removed) fell from 6.9 to 6.1 percent.

“It increases the Riksbank’s room to manoeuvre,” insurance company Länsförsäkringar’s chief economist Alexandra Stråberg told the TT newswire about the Swedish central bank’s upcoming announcement about whether to raise the country’s main interest rate or leave it unchanged.

“They are likely not going to have to raise the interest rate next week,” she said.

But not all experts agree. Nordea’s chief analyst Torbjörn Isaksson told TT that they still expected the Riksbank to raise the interest rate next week, but conceded the likelihood had decreased.

“It’s not a given,” he said.


Higher household expenses such as mortgage rates and rents were some of the main contributors to the inflation rate in October. Food prices were also 6.7 percent higher than this time last year.

Other price increases could be seen in the fashion industry, recreation and culture (the cost of a package holiday increased 13.4 percent), hotels and restaurants, and miscellaneous goods and services.

Electricity prices on the other hand fell 27.7 percent since October last year, and fuel prices were almost 7.9 percent lower than last year, according to Statistics Sweden.


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