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So - Mr Cameron is going to offer a referendum

Who really cares? 2015 onwards

byke
post 23.Jan.2013, 12:45 AM
Post #1
Location: Europe
Joined: 28.Oct.2008

Ok, so Europe is in trouble.
And there seems very little room for negotiation as 17 countries need to work closer together in hopes that closer integration will help them eventually shake of the debts and issues currently facing it.

The UK clearly doesn't want to be "absorbed" by the EU new direction.
And has been looking to distance it relationship in terms of outside risks (while retaining a working friendship).

It seems their is little to no room for negotiation between the EU and UK as the interest of other nations and their situation is somewhat grim at this moment.

So Mr Cameron will offer the UK in a few hours, the option of a new conservative manifesto from 2015 for a UK referendum to allow the public decide their future. And while it is pleasing to see a government listen to a split nation, it comes with a catch - and the catch being that they need to be re-elected before they offer the people of the UK such referendum.

But what happens if the UK is divided again during the elections and it leads to yet another coalition?
We know the lib dem's and labour are steadfast in their support for the EU and wont give such referendum powers to the conservatives through any allegiance.

And then we have UKIP which has gained very strong support in the last couple of years.
And while a coalition could work, I dont see the conservatives willing to do such a deal as it would be a loose cannon that could lead to ever greater recognition and acceptability of this new party.

We know that its been a 2 horse race for almost a century.
With a 3rd lame horse called gluey standing on the sidelines in the last couple of decades, often easily dismissed but was recently given their chance to shine - which hasnt worked too well for them. And now a new 4th horse is gaining a lot of attention.

England is stuck between a rock and a hard place.
The 17 Euro nations have little to no other choice, and must work together as a team as the risks are now too big.
Citizens of England have the choice to choose, but only if they vote conservative.
The other way is no referendum and direct party policy enshrined in their election results which would give very little representation for a democracy if tied together .

But how will Sweden handle this?
Can they afford to not fall into line?

Given the even greater cross party coalitions in Sweden, and heavy reliance to an ever more staunch and somewhat desperate 17 eurozone nations. What chance does Sweden have? As I cant see Sweden being able to go it alone.

The 17 eurozone nations have to be absolutely resistant to any scepticism to ensure their future.
But can they survive with the smell of a dead dog hanging round its neck ... As Greece, Spain and Italy is a very heavy burden to prop up.

Its a shambles .. and while its still a few years away.
It doesnt look like its going to solve itself.

I believe that no matter what the outcome will be, we need decisive action.
But unfortunately fear this wont happen and will just continue to drag on for many years to come.

The best thing (I believe) could happen is a second union was to open up such as a free trade Europe to run as a separate union alongside the eurozone Europe nations. Allowing the Eurozone to keep their coalition contained within their group. But also able to continue to trade harmoniously with the FT Union.

But this would require a steadfast FT agreement.
But would also offer a buffer zone for them if the eurozone was to collapse.

For the UK and maybe Sweden to stand any chance of retaining their independence along with the 8 other nations currently not in the eurozone. I think it will take a defection from a ok standing Eurozone member (such as holland or finland)

It doesnt look bright.
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Schomberg
post 23.Jan.2013, 12:55 AM
Post #2
Location: Gothenburg
Joined: 29.Nov.2009

I don't reckon it's all as bad as the Euros are trying to make out. There's already talk of deals and concessions that'd be offered to the UK. It's simply too big a place to ignore.
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byke
post 23.Jan.2013, 01:15 AM
Post #3
Location: Europe
Joined: 28.Oct.2008

While the UK is one of the bigger players, I dont think they have enough clout at present.
France is piggybacking on Germany ... and Germany is allowing it as they dont want to loose their investment.

And the only way to get enough clout would be to have greater cooperation and organisation between the 9 other non eurozone members. To establish a greater and more defined pack in itself (based on free trade). But given all the resources are primarily being used to sure up the 17 member block and their focused direction, I cant see a deal to be done.

Which makes one question the values of democracy in such a union, and if its a price worth foregoing?

As Sweden will have even less to say on the situation.
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entry
post 23.Jan.2013, 07:18 AM
Post #4
Location: Västra Götaland
Joined: 1.Jul.2007

byke, I am a regular reader of the UK's Christopher Booker and Richard North. They do not give me the impression that anything will be changing. I do expect after this morning's address they will have lots to say.

Checking the pop-corn supply -Paul

EU politics: gathering of the euro-clans
http://eureferendum.blogspot.se/2013/01/eu...euro-clans.html
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entry
post 23.Jan.2013, 09:49 AM
Post #5
Location: Västra Götaland
Joined: 1.Jul.2007

OK just reviewed the BBC review of the speech. UK citizens, I think you should demand your money back!

Nothing unexpected was announced and I do not think anyone can make heads or 'tales' of what was outlined.
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byke
post 23.Jan.2013, 10:39 AM
Post #6
Location: Europe
Joined: 28.Oct.2008

He has thrown down the gauntlet, but his stance or persona perceived as a leader in the UK is on a very different level compared to that of the EU.
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skogsbo
post 23.Jan.2013, 11:00 AM
Post #7
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

Just more fence sitting, playing to the voter, thrown out lots of press releases over past 2 or 3 weeks, looks at Mori polls etc. Then tailors speech to sound like he has common ground with everyone, on all sides. Typical politician, no straight answers and no straight forward referendum. He knows he has potentially 4 years to dance around a topic that needs resolving now.
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byke
post 23.Jan.2013, 11:52 AM
Post #8
Location: Europe
Joined: 28.Oct.2008

While it is still a long term offset.
It is a step into achieving the issue to be addressed.

We know the lib dems support the right to a referendum, we know the conservatives support this idea, as do UKIP.

And on the other side at present is labour, which I think will find it hard not to support such an idea as its essentially a snub or removal of choice for voters, regardless if they feel they want it.

Based on todays viewpoint, I think its the right balance.
And Mr Cameron has addressed the situation in the best way he could.
Tomorrow is another day, but today it looks the right way.
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skogsbo
post 23.Jan.2013, 11:56 AM
Post #9
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

But, such a long time scale, allows scope for the looney parties like bnp and ukip to gain ground, when their whole policy, and only policy is based around anti eu and anti immigration.
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byke
post 23.Jan.2013, 12:02 PM
Post #10
Location: Europe
Joined: 28.Oct.2008

But its clear Mr Cameron wants to stay within the trade group.
But cannot re-negotiate or look to forge allegiances with other nations, if a referendum was to be rushed through. Only resulting in a poor result in a referendum with little to no choice.
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entry
post 23.Jan.2013, 12:07 PM
Post #11
Location: Västra Götaland
Joined: 1.Jul.2007

But its clear Mr Cameron wants to stay within the trade group. - YES

But cannot re-negotiate or look to forge allegiances with other nations, if a referendum was to be rushed through. Only resulting in a poor result in a referendum with little to no choice. - Sounds Right but I need more thinking on that one byke
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cogito
post 23.Jan.2013, 01:18 PM
Post #12
Joined: 30.Dec.2009

A silly aside...I can't remember where I read this: Western Europe has done such a good job redistributing its assets that the European Union now has a Spanish economy, a Swedish foreign policy, an Italian army, and Irish gigolos.

I don't get the Irish gigolo bit.
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jvtx3232
post 23.Jan.2013, 02:29 PM
Post #13
Joined: 8.Oct.2011

Hopefully Sweden will follow Cameron's lead and schedule an EU referendum of their own!
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Yorkshireman
post 23.Jan.2013, 03:00 PM
Post #14
Joined: 22.Nov.2011

Won't make any difference if there is a referendum or not in Sweden, it has integrated so far, changed legislation etc... so much that it would be too huge a task for SWeden to exit the EU ...the only countries that are in a reasonable position to exit in a quickish (years!) time frame are the UK, as they already have sooo many derogations, and possibly Denmark.

It just a game that is being played ...UK PM saying vote Conservative, since Labour are more likely to beat them in the next election anyway ... EU threats that the financial center will move from London upon exit, UK saying it needs to re-negotiate terms ...USA saying they need UK in, when originally the reason the UK was kept out of the EEC was because the French thought that there would be too much influence from the USA via the UK biggrin.gif

Boyz and their toys ...at the end of the day, if terms are re-negotiated You can bet that it will not be presented correctly to the UK population, it will have been mistranslated, and there would be a continued flood of cases going through the ECJ ...and the UK saying, we didnt realise it could be interpreted as that! biggrin.gif

Whilst that goes on, the unelected EU Commission will continue to propose new legislation and waste a tonne of money investigating things with its 25.000+ staff!!!... whilst evading the need for clear transparancy especially with regards lobby groups wink.gif
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byke
post 23.Jan.2013, 03:04 PM
Post #15
Location: Europe
Joined: 28.Oct.2008

Very interesting to read Mr Carl Bildts comments today, as it would seem that Sweden's position has now been decided before any changes have been ratified or public consensus.

For the UK voter, its really a question of Democracy versus Economic propaganda and risks.
Whereas other non eurozone nations have either chosen to sit tight and hope for the best, or are not in a situation of self stabilisation to roll out such questions.

One thing is for sure, and that is that what we are seeing in Europe in regards to the union is not a group of nations working together - but a game of hard ball and conquests. Which does pose a very serious threat to individual states and values in regards to self rule.

The dynamics of a trade agreement are morphing into something much greater due to debt and problems caused by poor foresight and past bad management. Who in turn continue to lead the pact through their own self importance.

What is most surprising is this response by certain euro politicians that claim that Britain can not "cherry pick". Which would indicate that Europe and its projected vision is no longer about nations working together. But structural uniformity.

If this is the case, then obviously such changes need to be conveyed to the general public to approve such. As without, they are giving up their freedom without any form of democratic choice.
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