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How should Sweden reward Tegnell?

For his amazing service to the nation

Essingen55
post 19.Apr.2020, 02:55 PM
Post #16
Joined: 12.Dec.2013

QUOTE
Why is he wrong... Italy and Spain have been locked down for how long? If lock down worked they wouldn't still be seeing 400,500, 600 deaths per day.. as they have far exceeded the 3-4 week lead in time that lock down would need to halt the virus.

Lockdown may slow the spread, but it's not stopping it and the same people who would have died, will still die, as there is no vaccine of proven medication.

Folk are arguing over a different path to the same end result. Only one path bankrupts a nation on the way.


Why is he wrong?
Well, first of all I was really referring to him having been wrong in the specific statements he made. I would suggest that these are pretty much a matter of fact. But you are asking me why is he wrong in the general non-lockdown approach? Here I would suggest the following.

1. There are going to be so many variables involved in this that the best comparisons are not Spain and Italy but the countries closest to us geographically and health-wise, i.e other countries in the Nordic region.

...similar arrival time for the virus
...similar levels of population density
...similar age distributions
...similar high levels of general health.

Here, as we know, there are pretty large variations in the level of death per 100,000 people.

2. Based on the empirical evidence of China and South Korea, the only proven strategies have been lockdown and/or tracing/testing. Sweden started well with tracing and testing but soon gave up. There may well have been good reasons why they couldn't test more ...no capacity probably. But if that was the case they good have slowed it down with more of a lockdown. You argue that this wrecks the economy. I'm not sure I entirely agree with you because people are already in a half lock-down anyway. We could have done that for a few weeks and we could probably have saved lives.

Unfortunately I don't see much compassion in the Swedish approach. In the early stages, the deaths were predominantly in immigrant areas of Stockholm where different generations of the same family share the same accommodation. The V?nster party are now trying to do something about that...we'll see what happens there. The same thing applies in care homes. I'm afraid I can barely watch TV when I see some administrative manager denying extra protection to care home workers that they clearly need.

I'm not saying that everything has been wrong, but this is far from Sweden's finest moment I fear.
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Gamla Hälsingebock
post 19.Apr.2020, 03:24 PM
Post #17
Joined: 21.Dec.2006

Your information about who is/was affected by the virus in Sweden is exactly the same as my family has given to me...

In New York City there is no difference!!!

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skogsbo
post 19.Apr.2020, 03:41 PM
Post #18
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

I wouldn't base any theory on data China has given out. South Korea has more credit. But I still see this as being early days. You can't get excited about daily figures.. monthly or weekly trends are what matters.

Per capita sweden will look worse than some countries who had locked, but give it time. They aren't out of lock down yet and are still accruing 2-3000 deaths per week in the UK, France, Spain, Italy... they've flattened the curve more, extending the timeline.
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Rita O.
post 22.Apr.2020, 02:05 PM
Post #19
Location: Europe
Joined: 19.Apr.2020

I invariably feel a slight shiver down my spine when I read or hear someone talking about individual freedom. This is not about you, me, or her/him, it's about us. Even locked up we still have the freedom to express our opinion. If i have to give up going out for a drink in order to protect everyone else, or my mom who's 77 years old, I gladly do it.
Also, contrary to what it may seem, countries in lockdown are still working and producing in many more fields than what meets the eyes, since one does not produce food without transport, or masks without the textile and chemistry. And so on.

Sweden may be a bit better off in terms of its economy, but definitely not so much better to justify being callous about deaths, both inside or outside its borders. This is not a competition.
The economy will suffer no matter what we do, jobs are lost everywhere, in Sweden too. The world is an incredibly intricate net of exchanges, noone will come out of this unscathed.

I'm not here to criticise Tegnell, he might even be right, but once asked whether he will take responsibility in case things should go worse than envisioned, he replied: "no, why should I?"
To me, this says it all.
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skogsbo
post 22.Apr.2020, 02:23 PM
Post #20
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

Tegnell is a scientific advisor, along with his employer Johan giesecke, it's upto the elected politicians what they do with the advice. So yes he right.
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Rita O.
post 22.Apr.2020, 03:22 PM
Post #21
Location: Europe
Joined: 19.Apr.2020

QUOTE (skogsbo @ 22.Apr.2020, 03:23 PM) *
Tegnell is a scientific advisor, along with his employer Johan giesecke, it's upto the elected politicians what they do with the advice. So yes he right.

Wow, so this is a win win situation

If his advise turns out to have been wise, he was right.

If his advise turns out to have been not so wise, it's the Gov's fault, so he was right.

If other countries around the world, Taiwan, Greece, South Korea or New Zealand to name a few should be proven right in their approach, cultural differences will be mentioned, so he was right.
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Gamla Hälsingebock
post 22.Apr.2020, 03:23 PM
Post #22
Joined: 21.Dec.2006

Has it been proved that "herd" immunity applies to this thing, it has been reported that some have been reinfected...Where's the immunity there???
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skogsbo
post 22.Apr.2020, 03:59 PM
Post #23
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

QUOTE (Rita O. @ 22.Apr.2020, 03:22 PM) *
Wow, so this is a win win situationIf his advise turns out to have been wise, he was right.If his advise turns out to have been not so wise, it's the Gov's fault, so h ... (show full quote)

Maybe there is more than one right, there are also several various strains, some more lethal than others.

Personally I think just in fighting it, all methods are likely right.. some just slow the inevitable march of the virus through their population.

Tegnell.. isn't that the role of any government scientific advisors, they aren't elected, they don't debate national policy. It's up to the people appointed through elections what direction policy takes. If folk aren't happy I'm sure they'll express it in around 3 years time.

Sweden does have a habit of bringing relevant experts into the government, Anders Borg was the finance minister through the last recession, he was widely acclaimed to have steered sweden through it with much less damage than elsewhere. (He is an economist, with banking and finance experience, not a politician, he return to the finance sector afterwards).
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skogsbo
post 22.Apr.2020, 04:02 PM
Post #24
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

QUOTE (Gamla H?lsingebock @ 22.Apr.2020, 03:23 PM) *
Has it been proved that "herd" immunity applies to this thing, it has been reported that some have been reinfected...Where's the immunity there???

It's generally considered that the tests are not 100% in first and those allegedly reinfected likely never cleared the infection in the first place. (South korea).

Random thought, annual global population is increasing by 80 million... so far 180000 have died. In the big scheme of things, it's having zero impact.
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Gamla Hälsingebock
post 22.Apr.2020, 04:58 PM
Post #25
Joined: 21.Dec.2006

All we have are numbers to prove or disprove which system is working...

I do not know what to say, all logical ideas based on numbers are really not logical or truthful

In a logical world you could say countries with huge populations would be affected equally to others...not so, just look at India, Pakistan compared to Western Europe, have their populations acquired "herd" immunity because of their location???

I don't think there are any answers as to how to deal with this thing based on numbers and so called logic...

We pray for a vaccine...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Yortis
post 22.Apr.2020, 05:27 PM
Post #26
Joined: 24.Oct.2008

Reward for what? Being responsible for the deaths of thousands? His reward should be a long prison sentence.
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Essingen55
post 22.Apr.2020, 05:33 PM
Post #27
Joined: 12.Dec.2013

QUOTE
If his advise turns out to have been wise, he was right.

If his advise turns out to have been not so wise, it's the Gov's fault, so he was right.

If other countries around the world, Taiwan, Greece, South Korea or New Zealand to name a few should be proven right in their approach, cultural differences will be mentioned, so he was right


Yes, that is exactly how he is. I have started to think the guy is a psychopath actually. He always has an excuse for everything.

Given the uncertainties around this, there is really only one way to deal with it and that is to try and eradicate it. Another other method is gambling with peoples lives for no obvious plus side.
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skogsbo
post 22.Apr.2020, 05:44 PM
Post #28
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

You can't really use the numbers to compare until 1 or 2 years time. All countries are at different stages, plus do you count the number of non covid deaths over the next decade due to lack of things like cancer treatment just now, or linked to the looming recession. It really isn't to black and white.
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skogsbo
post 22.Apr.2020, 05:45 PM
Post #29
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

Eradication is the stuff of dreams just now. We don't even know if we can vaccinate against it.
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Essingen55
post 22.Apr.2020, 05:53 PM
Post #30
Joined: 12.Dec.2013

QUOTE
Eradication is the stuff of dreams just now.


I agree...we wouldn't achieve it. But there is no reason why we couldn't have proportionally similar numbers to Norway. And now that we are gradually getting the ability to test going, we would have been better placed to quickly deal with outbreaks.

But instead where are we going? Absolutely nowhere. There simply is no strategy except to stand there every day at 14:00 announce the figures and then try and explain them away. Now they are talking about the over 70s needing to be isolated for many more months. But why? If this had been Norway or Finland there would be far less need for it. The Chinese ambassador to Sweden is correct, it is just as if we have raised the white flag and let the disease do what it will.
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