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Does anyone understand the stock market?

*Gully Gull*
post 1.Mar.2007, 05:15 PM
Post #31


Thanks for all the responses.

I still don't understand on the BBC it says "A number of the world's main indexes have broken records recently" - but, so what, surely that's what they "should" do as time passes anyway? - someone who bought some random blue chip shares in 1980 and put them in a draw would expect their value to have gone up over 27 years.
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Braderunner Rennuredarb
post 1.Mar.2007, 06:29 PM
Post #32
Location: Not in Sweden
Joined: 24.May.2005

Gully - that is the "problem" today...the media makes news out of nothing so they will have something to report. They cant just say "Nothing of extreme interest happened"...they have to say the DJIA plunged 500 points on the news that someone farted. Day traders freak out and sell...and there are all kinds of little corrections like that.
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*Alex-sweden*
post 1.Mar.2007, 07:16 PM
Post #33


lmao biggrin.gif you tell 'em Sphincter!

What's up with people on here, he's not doing anything wrong. He's worked hard and he's making good money, and good on him :wink:

I don't have a clue about the stock market though, it's far too confusing, and I always hated maths...maybe that's why I'm so poor sad.gif languages aren't where the money is...


p.s. - Sphincter, you can laugh at all the people who are having a go at you, when you're on a beach in Mauritius or travelling forst class with a glass of champagne in your hand biggrin.gif
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FR
post 1.Mar.2007, 07:48 PM
Post #34
Joined: 22.Oct.2005

QUOTE (sphincter)
So, to answer your question, yes, it is possible to make money, regardless of which direction the market is going. You just have to know when to get out.


Exactly!
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Screamingskulls
post 1.Mar.2007, 08:11 PM
Post #35
Joined: 18.Jun.2006

well i have been thinking about doing something in these stock markets or a while. but i have not been able to get a hold of whats really happening in there.. so if any of you could give me a tip from where i could collect some general information for beginners!!

iam interested in the asian markets specially india ( man the country is really becoming something)

schinter! you seem to be aware of this??? right?
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Roger O. Thornhill
post 1.Mar.2007, 08:35 PM
Post #36
Joined: 12.Oct.2005

QUOTE (Gully Gull)
I have never amanged to understand the stock market.

For example:

- the markets will suddenly plunge with no warning, even to experienced traders.

- world markets plunge and US economic growth is revised from 3.5% to 2.2% - the Dow Jones goes **UP**

- when Ericsson issues an amazing report with record profits their shares go ... DOWN. But a few years ago when they issued some very mundane reports, their shares shot UP.

- and finally, most share markets just seem to more or less mimic whatever the Dow Jones does, give or take the odd day.

How does anyone make sense of this?


The stock market is both rational and irrational.

Rationally stocks are estimates of value based on cash flow streams (not accounting income nor EPS).

Stocks are traded by people so emotions become involved which can tank the best rational valuations. People panic. Heard theory is involved.

Stock values will react to present and percieved impacts on cash flow e.g. the price of oil goes up, distribution costs go up, price will go down et cetera.

Dow Jones index is a very imperfect index and is based on archaic inputs. People watch it because people have always watched it. It is calulatedd because people watch it.

Basic analysis starts on general economy. What sectors are then expected to do well given that economy. Then down to specific company outooks. (Big oversimplification).

Invest in what you know, but even the amateur can speculate in no brainer stitutations e.g.as soon as the markets reopened after 9/11 I purchased a basket of defense stocks and did quite well with them.

Of course, typically one is trading against the best in the world too, as well as computer trades.

Watch for cues. Billionaire leftist George Soros just bought almost 2 million shares of Halliburton. What does that tell you?

For those of you with big brass balls, try commodity trading. I spent some time on the floor of the Kansas City Board of Trade. You can make and lose alot in a very short time. Exciting. :twisted:

Companies and economies of the world are all interelated these days. Think in terms of Porter's five forces industry analysis.
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sphincter
post 2.Mar.2007, 12:09 AM
Post #37
Joined: 26.Feb.2007

QUOTE (talktome)
I'm in Helsingborg...and don't use Bloomberg...but I do venture to Stockholm a few times a year.


I visit Malmo every year as well. Still up for a beer?
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sphincter
post 2.Mar.2007, 12:19 AM
Post #38
Joined: 26.Feb.2007

QUOTE (Screamingskulls)
well i have been thinking about doing something in these stock markets or a while. but i have not been able to get a hold of whats really happening in there.. so if any of you could give me a tip from where i could collect some general information for beginners!!

iam interested in the asian markets specially india ( man the country is really becoming something)

schinter! you seem to be aware of this??? right?


Screamingskulls, Yes, India is one of the big emerging markets, and seemingly rocking at the moment. But to be completely honest with you, I know too little about that market to be able to give you a view, but I'm going to check in to it.
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talktome
post 2.Mar.2007, 12:56 AM
Post #39
Joined: 13.Aug.2006

QUOTE (Screamingskulls)
well i have been thinking about doing something in these stock markets or a while. but i have not been able to get a hold of whats really happening in there.. so if any of you could give me a tip from where i could collect some general information for beginners!!

iam interested in the asian markets specially india ( man the country is really becoming something)

schinter! you seem to be aware of this??? right?


My advice, for what it's worth, is to FIRST approach stock market investing from the top down...ie. what is it that you want from the market? Once you can identify that, THEN go on to identify what exists that will get you what you want. If this is too cryptic then you've got a lot of homework to do. Unless you're prepared to bridge that education gap you'll forever be at the mercy of those that know more than you...a la those that sphincter described, who pumped up prices so they can offload their stock for a premium, at your expense.
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sphincter
post 2.Mar.2007, 02:22 AM
Post #40
Joined: 26.Feb.2007

QUOTE (talktome)
My advice, for what it's worth, is to FIRST approach stock market investing from the top down...ie. what is it that you want from the market? Once you can identify that, THEN go on to identify what exists that will get you what you want. If this is too cryptic then you've got a lot of homework to do. Unless you're prepared to bridge that education gap you'll forever be at the mercy of those that know more than you...a la those that sphincter described, who pumped up prices so they can offload their stock for a premium, at your expense.


I agree. Another advise would be to not get greedy. Better to take a small profit than a big loss. Know when to get out.

Here is my suggestion. Pick a number of stocks, let's say 5 or so. Track the closing prices for a while. Read the news related to the names, check FX rates, try and find patterns to see what moves a stock.

just to give you an example, take a company like Sony, which is a big exporter. How will a stonger yen affect the price? Fundamentally the stock will go down. If you buy an airline, how will the oil prices affect the stock price, etc etc...
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talktome
post 2.Mar.2007, 05:18 AM
Post #41
Joined: 13.Aug.2006

QUOTE (sphincter)
I visit Malmo every year as well. Still up for a beer?


Sure!

This is my blog...theasxgorilla.blogspot.com.

Post a comment there and leave an email address and we can get in touch that way...eller?
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Word Up
post 2.Mar.2007, 10:10 PM
Post #42
Joined: 18.Nov.2005

Its the world's largest casino and like all casinos, the house always wins.
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Bender B Rodriquez
post 2.Mar.2007, 10:14 PM
Post #43
Joined: 25.Mar.2006

True, the house AND the dealers...
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