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The Referendum - Vote to Leave the EU!

Footballers & Ex Pats - what happens next

Mpf
post 19.Apr.2016, 10:29 AM
Post #1
Location: Stockholm
Joined: 5.Jul.2006

The implications surrounding an exit from the EU will have a large impact on many who no longer live in the UK as well as some of those who do but then won't be able to.

Premiership footballers for instance, many will not be able to play! http://www.theweek.co.uk/premier-league/70...-premier-league

An then you have all the ex pats in Spain or where ever in the EU, who would become illegal immigrants literally over night. If not a citizen of the country they are in any residents would become illegal immigrants, rights to work would need permits, and what about the UK state pension, that too "could" be frozen!

I am sure there are some other problems associated with leaving the EU too, but all this bun fighting is not helpful. Yesterday's news that we would all be £4300 worse off! Is quite frankly a load of bull, we also don't need to follow one of the 3 options, as we could negotiate our own deal (making 4).

I think this vote will be quite exciting, and if we do vote to leave I would be curious as to all the implications, and that is what we should be focusing on.

Food for thought!
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skogsbo
post 19.Apr.2016, 10:40 AM
Post #2
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

people moved, worked, holidayed, traded with one another before the EU, I see no reason to panic over brexit.

Because of treaties signed already, even if 99% vote to leave, nothing can change for 2 years with the UK and EU. So no one will be illegal immigrants, no one will have their assets or pensions frozen, there will be no instant trade tariffs etc... all that is just scare mongering.
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Mib
post 19.Apr.2016, 10:56 AM
Post #3
Joined: 7.Jul.2006

There are risk of course, bioth to stay in and to leave. There is no safe option as staying will result in tighter integration and with th EU showing no signs of democracy, increased corruption and bad planning for refugees crisis etc, then there are great risks staying. For me, this referendum is about democracy and only democracy.

Spain are not going to suddenly throw out all British expats. The dameg to their economy would be massive if they were so stupid. the sme in the UK, the migrants will not be deported etc as most of them are integral to the British infrastructure like the NHS and comeercial success. The Germans will trade with the UK as it is one of the biggest buyers of German cars and other products. Quite simply, Stockholm's biggest export market is the UK. There are two years to sort out the details beofre we start talking about deporting expats. In fact, they would proabably be protected by the EU human rights law while in Europe for the right to family life. But, in any case, i am applying for dual nationality just to be sure.

The biggest worry I have is the UK leaving and being a great success. That will be a green light for countries who's own people want to leave. But for th elikes of Italy etc, they have the Euro and so there is a igger cost for them to leave, but again as I say, this is about democracy and the EU is undemocratic. Who knows who their MEP is? Who believes they can vote out a particular policy by voting for another party? They can't.

The EU has many advantages and should have stayed at the intial plan to be a collective trading zone. Not a political and in the future a financial union in terms of a EU tax etc.

All in all, the EU and the UK Governments are acting like kids in a playground. They both refuse to back down and now they threaten the future of the EU as well as affecting the UK. The Scots may even leave if the UK leaves the EU. But, that would be utter madness to leave a common union to join a European Union with the size of their economy.

The UK is the 5th largest GDP in the world. It has the power to be on its own in terms of democracy and trade. Yes, there will be disruption as this has never been done before. There will be scare stories from both sides. people and compaines will be worried. the EU members may even retaliate via trade embargoes etc, but that will hurt them as well and people have long memories.

Democracy, democracy. That's what it's all about for me. So for me, Brexit!
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Savage
post 19.Apr.2016, 11:49 AM
Post #4
Joined: 11.Mar.2016

QUOTE (skogsbo @ 19.Apr.2016, 11:40 AM) *
people moved, worked, holidayed, traded with one another before the EU, I see no reason to panic over brexit.



This is true, BUT ...
A lot has changed in 20 years, and the most importantly the size, growth and homogenization of the EU has created a monopoly of 28 members now which is very different to what it was 20 years ago. The other important fact is that 20 years ago, the UK leaving the EU wouldn't have the same impact as it would today.

And that is the real danger.

The knock on effect is causing a panic in Europe and a very aggressive stance against the UK.

Germany
"Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, has warned British chancellor George Osborne that Berlin would be a tough negotiator if the UK votes to leave the EU.

Speaking on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund spring meetings on Saturday, Mr Schäuble, one of the strongest forces in European politics, also jested that British football teams in a post-Brexit world should be excluded from the European champions league — something not actually linked to EU membership."

France
http://www.france24.com/en/20160418-france...manently-poorer

"French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron weighed in on the Brexit debate late Sunday, warning that Britain would be “completely killed” in global trade negotiations if Britons vote to leave the EU in a June 23 referendum."

Italy
The Italian government has argued that the renegotiated UK membership terms prime minister David Cameron agreed with his counterparts in February should be used as an opportunity for the eurozone to integrate further.

“We need to rethink or strengthen the governance model of the EU and the euro area. Europe needs to have ambition, we cannot continue with piecemeal approaches,” said Mr Padoan



Then you have the issue with Gibraltar and so on.
The real question needs to be, is the UK and its leaders strong enough to be able to negotiate a Brexit if a referendum points that way. As that will be the deciding factor. And given that David, George, Jeremy, Teressa, Tim, Natalie etc.

No UK party apart from UKIP is campaigning to leave.

Tories - Bremain
Labor - Bremain
Lib Dems - Bremain
Green - Bremain

UKIP - Brexit




If the Brexit wants to get its message across, it will need a leader.
A leader better that all those mentioned above.
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Savage
post 19.Apr.2016, 02:53 PM
Post #5
Joined: 11.Mar.2016

I want to add, that while I have been playing devils advocate.

My vote is for a BREXIT.
As the system is broken both in the UK and the EU.
And this will be the final chance to right the wrongs before it is too late.
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Hallander
post 19.Apr.2016, 03:33 PM
Post #6
Joined: 4.Mar.2009

The first bit of this article from the Telegraph has the nub of it. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/17...eave-thats-rea/ quote
QUOTE
the EU is an oligarchy – a form of permanent, supranational government by a relatively small mutual support group of highly educated people which has worked out how to stay in power without the boring task of submitting itself to general elections.
and
QUOTE
If there is one thing the EU is good at, it is providing career opportunities, summit meetings, conference circuits and pensions for administrative and political elites.

And we all know that the aim of the elite is to get towards a federal Europe by fair means or foul. A vote for Brexit does not mean anything will happen quickly. Expats, fear not. What happens will happen painfully slowlyand by careful negotiation.
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Model T Ford
post 19.Apr.2016, 05:54 PM
Post #7
Joined: 31.May.2013

Just the UK repeating its betrayals, like what happened to the Arab League after London promised to unify them.

The Brits always act like Perfidious Albion.
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Hallander
post 19.Apr.2016, 06:21 PM
Post #8
Joined: 4.Mar.2009

Just wind your neck in, its our business, not yours. Its enough to have Obama coming over to tell us what to do.
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Savage
post 19.Apr.2016, 07:02 PM
Post #9
Joined: 11.Mar.2016

From a geo political standpoint a Brexit could have far reaching consequences, to the point in which a a Brexit vote could evolve into a very strange chapter of events.

Firstly, we know that Europe has many weak spots. And that EU policy making has allowed countries like Italy to put themselves in a very precarious situation, Financially.

We know Spain, Greece and so on are a potential issue.

But a Brexit is potentially a very risky move in regards to the EU block members.
Too much debt in some countries, too many loans by others to shore up the Eurozone.
And Russia breathing heavily in anticipation, looking to re-establish partnerships in the event of instability.

But since this is a UK and Swedish based forum, lets look at the dangers that face Sweden.
Sweden has been somewhat quiet in regards to not wanting to influence or disrespect the referendum campaign. Yes there has been a little bit of propaganda in regards to self interest, but generally its has been influential statements.

There is no doubt that nearly all states in the EU have commissioned risk analysis for their own country in the event of a Brexit, and it would naive to think that Sweden hasn't done the same. Given Sweden's position and interests, it could be that a Brexit vote could lead to Sweden choosing to do the same in a very short time manner. As if the EU was to erode, Sweden wouldn't want to be taken down with the Eurozone which is most at risk. And if it could get in early with an agreement with the UK, it may be able to negotiate a military pact regarding protection from any potential threat. Which would be especially important if the EU started to break up. The Netherlands is another country which has shown great disdain for EU direction and has recently voted against stronger ties with the Ukraine. And subsequently, there has been suggestions of referendums should be banned as they pose a risk to the EU as a whole.

Then we have the US, the US holds the upper hand regarding influence in the EU.
And any fractures could lead to Russia regaining a foothold in Europe, which would be against US and Nato interests. So it is no surprise that the US is promoting the UK to Remain.

If a Brexit was to happen, worst case scenario I could imagine fractures appearing rather quickly in the EU. And would require very fast and brutal downsizing of the pact to try and stop contagion. With western Europe creating new pacts and unfortunately leaving many eastern territories to fend for themselves.
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Model T Ford
post 19.Apr.2016, 07:35 PM
Post #10
Joined: 31.May.2013

QUOTE (Hallander @ 19.Apr.2016, 05:21 PM) *
Just wind your neck in, its our business, not yours. Its enough to have Obama coming over to tell us what to do.


If it's just an internal British matter, why post it on a Swedish site as an international matter?

Can't you find a right-wing site back home for your nonsence, since if Britain's finally leaves the EU, its layabouts will be more dependent than ever on the USA.
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Hisingen
post 19.Apr.2016, 08:23 PM
Post #11
Joined: 5.Jul.2012

MTF now you are going off your trolley matey.
Keep your fanatsies on your homeland and in outer space and leave discussions on our country's future to those that matter i.e. BRITS AND KEEP YOUR YANKEE NOSE OUT.
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Hisingen
post 19.Apr.2016, 08:44 PM
Post #12
Joined: 5.Jul.2012

To Savage, there has been very little coming out of Rosenbad, other than a whisper that there is apprehension regarding a possible Brexit. The welder is - as is his wont - keeping very low key, and is seldom to be seen or heard doing or saying anything of note. I guess he is still wearing his 'L-plates'.
The trouble with his housing minister hardly raised a whimper and, according to the spring budget, there seems masses of money in the governmental coffers to throw around, despite the current finance minster saying that she took over a country that was on its beam ends, and those were coffers empty.
Osborne is spouting a whole load proclaiming the advent of doom and disaster as a result of Brexit. Being the next PM candidate that is rather to be expected, and the future of Cameronio does not look too bright. Unfortunately all the big so-called guns are lining up 'to stay in' whilst the voices for the man in the street have yet to get their act together to proclaim the virtues of Brexit, and to counteract the propaganda leaflet that has already been sent to every household in the country.
Juncker today is expressing fears to the effect that his EU is 'not going to plan' due to unrest and too much red tape. He seemingly forgot to mention anything about budgets and finances for some unknown reason, nor anything about the cost of running the circus.
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skogsbo
post 19.Apr.2016, 08:50 PM
Post #13
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

QUOTE (Savage @ 19.Apr.2016, 11:49 AM) *
This is true, BUT ...A lot has changed in 20 years, and the most importantly the size, growth and homogenization of the EU has created a monopoly of 28 members now which is ve ... (show full quote)


perhaps the EU should have offered the UK some better terms with the renegotiation then. They have only themselves to blame.

What has changed in 20 years is the dream of the Euro has been proven to not work, ever closer expansion and union has been proven not to work too. CAP the
same. Migration the same.
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skogsbo
post 19.Apr.2016, 08:54 PM
Post #14
Joined: 20.Sep.2011

QUOTE (Savage @ 19.Apr.2016, 07:02 PM) *
But since this is a UK and Swedish based forum, lets look at the dangers that face Sweden.

pretty limited, all the non Euro nations are in much better shape. And Sweden with always form a closer bond with the other Nordic/Scandic nations in the event of a collapse.

Life might change a little but it will go on. Compare to what could happen or will likely happen in the PIIGS nations eventually anyway, Sweden has little to fear.
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LLHope
post 20.Apr.2016, 07:53 PM
Post #15
Location: Stockholm
Joined: 1.Jan.2014

QUOTE (Savage @ 19.Apr.2016, 10:49 AM) *
Germany "Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, has warned British chancellor George Osborne that Berlin would be a tough negotiator if the UK votes to leave the EU
biggrin.gif ...they already now block measures that would open the market to British partners (i.e. Commonwealth Members), so nothing new there. In fact, the British could have far better deals within/Between the Commonwealth Member countries than the EU. Right now Germany and France block everything in order to protect their own interests. As for France, well, their economy has collapsed in all but words, so whatever they say is irrelevant. The EU is about money/business, the movement of people is just a secondary half measure. If you exclude the fact that Germany is running scared and moving to get Turkey in as fast as possible ... Then in the next couple of decades it is forecast that the UK will not only become the largest economy in the EU but also the largest by population... if outside the EU, then why would the EU Member States NOT want to deal with the UK? It would be larger than any of the Member States (barring entry of Turkey). Money money money wink.gif ... UK should vote OUT.
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