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Alliance increases lead: poll

TT/The Local · 14 Sep 2010, 07:29

Published: 14 Sep 2010 07:29 GMT+02:00

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The centre-right Alliance thereby extended its lead by 4 percentage points, in comparison with last week's Skop survey, which are published in the Svenska Dagbladet daily.

The Social Democrats continued their decline in the survey, dropping 2 points to 27.6 percent - the lowest level to date in one of Skop's opinion surveys.

Red-Green coalition partner the Green Party also declined, by 0.7 points, while the Left Party advanced slightly.

"Both the Social Democrats and the Green Party find themselves in a downward trend," said Skop's CEO Birgitta Hutåker in a statement.

Since the Green Party's high in the June survey, the party has lost almost a third of its support.

The Christian Democrats increased by 0.9 percentage points, while the Centre Party remained unchanged.

The nationalist Sweden Democrats returned 5 percent in the survey and would thus enter parliament if an election were to be held today.

Story continues below…

Skop interviewed 1,100 people for the survey conducted between September 7th and 12th.

None of the changes in the poll are categorised as statistically significant.

TT/The Local (news@thelocal.se)

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Your comments about this article

10:13 September 14, 2010 by Nomark
"None of the changes in the poll are categorised as statistically significant."

Why then the following headline ?

"Alliance increases lead: poll"

In terms of abuse of statistics, this article is equivalent to throwing two dice, finding that they are both sixes, and then announcing that dice now seem to be biased towards throwing sixes.
14:23 September 14, 2010 by klokes
Actually, i think it´s fair to say that an extension by 4% is enough to warrant the title: "Alliance Increases lead".

When they say "None of the changes in the poll are categorised as statistically significant. ", i think they refer to the increase for the individual parties, but when looking at the two different blocks, the increase is enough to state that the Alliance has, overall, gained votes.
16:22 September 14, 2010 by glamelixir
If the alliance would increase the lead in polls every time the local publishes it they should be around 100% votes by now.

Is this site a real journalist communication platform or is it only an expath that couldn't find anything better to do in Sweden? just wondering.
16:58 September 14, 2010 by Nomark
A simple analysis with Poissonian statistics suggests an uncertainty of ~3% on "the lead". Assuming a similar uncertainty with the earlier survey this implies that the shift of 4% isn't significant.
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