What happened to Sweden's heatwave?
Much of Europe is sweltering in a record heatwave, but in Sweden the month of July has so far mainly been marked by rain and low temperatures. So should we breathe a sigh of relief – or brace for what's still to come?
Last year, the village of Målilla in south-eastern Sweden was one degree short of breaking the country's all-time July heat record when the mercury climbed to 37.2C on July 21st.
But this year there is no sign of temperatures coming anywhere close to that, at least not in the near future. Instead, they're currently ranging at around 15-20C.
July has so far been much wetter and colder than normal in Sweden. This is because a jet stream is currently blocking the European heatwave from reaching Scandinavia.
The jet stream, which is formed when cool air masses meet warm air masses, is pushing the low-pressure weather towards Scandinavia while at the same time pushing the high-pressure band towards southern Europe.
It is not expected to shift in the next ten days, so don't pack away your umbrella just yet.
On this occasion the jet stream is protecting Scandinavia from a serious heatwave and providing some much-needed relief from the drought in June, but more rain is in general one of the ways in which Sweden is being affected by climate change.
A report by weather agency SMHI last year showed that Sweden's annual precipitation has increased from around 600 millimetres in 1930 to almost 700 millimetres from the start of the new millennium.
The same report found that Sweden's average temperature between 1991 and 2020 was 1.9C higher than in the period of 1861-1890 – more than double the global average for the same period (0.9C).
And the heatwave may still reach Sweden anew this summer.
In spring, authorities warned of a repeat of the summer of 2018, when an unprecedented number of wildfires ravaged Sweden and the extremely dry weather forced farmers to put livestock to emergency slaughter.
Those extreme warnings have not yet materialised, but that doesn't mean Sweden has gone unscathed.
The month of June was unusually warm in Sweden, with at least one or two local heat records being broken for the sixth consecutive year, which SMHI described as such a rare streak "it's almost unthinkable".
Warnings of high temperatures and a heightened risk of wildfires were issued across all of Sweden during the worst of the early-summer heatwave, including bans on lighting fires or barbecues.
And although increased rainfall in the past couple of weeks has lifted the fire bans in many areas, there's still a risk of a water shortage in south-eastern Sweden, from Skåne to Stockholm.
Due to the dry weather in June, farmers have said that Sweden's grain harvest is expected to be around 4.6 million tonnes, 1.2 million tonnes less than last year, which will push up prices.
Sweden's Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin warned that the danger was not over.
"If we get a new period of dry weather or the heat that they're having in Europe at the moment, we could quickly end up in the kind of precarious situation we had in June," he told Aftonbladet.
He said that Sweden was better prepared today than it was in 2018 to face a wildfire crisis, and praised firefighters for their work battling blazes in areas where they had broken out this year.
But the situation could change quickly, SMHI meteorologist Linus Karlsson told Aftonbladet.
"If we were to get a high pressure band and a lot of sun later in July or August, there is a risk that we will again get a risk of wildfires," he said.
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Last year, the village of Målilla in south-eastern Sweden was one degree short of breaking the country's all-time July heat record when the mercury climbed to 37.2C on July 21st.
But this year there is no sign of temperatures coming anywhere close to that, at least not in the near future. Instead, they're currently ranging at around 15-20C.
July has so far been much wetter and colder than normal in Sweden. This is because a jet stream is currently blocking the European heatwave from reaching Scandinavia.
The jet stream, which is formed when cool air masses meet warm air masses, is pushing the low-pressure weather towards Scandinavia while at the same time pushing the high-pressure band towards southern Europe.
It is not expected to shift in the next ten days, so don't pack away your umbrella just yet.
On this occasion the jet stream is protecting Scandinavia from a serious heatwave and providing some much-needed relief from the drought in June, but more rain is in general one of the ways in which Sweden is being affected by climate change.
A report by weather agency SMHI last year showed that Sweden's annual precipitation has increased from around 600 millimetres in 1930 to almost 700 millimetres from the start of the new millennium.
The same report found that Sweden's average temperature between 1991 and 2020 was 1.9C higher than in the period of 1861-1890 – more than double the global average for the same period (0.9C).
And the heatwave may still reach Sweden anew this summer.
In spring, authorities warned of a repeat of the summer of 2018, when an unprecedented number of wildfires ravaged Sweden and the extremely dry weather forced farmers to put livestock to emergency slaughter.
Those extreme warnings have not yet materialised, but that doesn't mean Sweden has gone unscathed.
The month of June was unusually warm in Sweden, with at least one or two local heat records being broken for the sixth consecutive year, which SMHI described as such a rare streak "it's almost unthinkable".
Warnings of high temperatures and a heightened risk of wildfires were issued across all of Sweden during the worst of the early-summer heatwave, including bans on lighting fires or barbecues.
And although increased rainfall in the past couple of weeks has lifted the fire bans in many areas, there's still a risk of a water shortage in south-eastern Sweden, from Skåne to Stockholm.
Due to the dry weather in June, farmers have said that Sweden's grain harvest is expected to be around 4.6 million tonnes, 1.2 million tonnes less than last year, which will push up prices.
Sweden's Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin warned that the danger was not over.
"If we get a new period of dry weather or the heat that they're having in Europe at the moment, we could quickly end up in the kind of precarious situation we had in June," he told Aftonbladet.
He said that Sweden was better prepared today than it was in 2018 to face a wildfire crisis, and praised firefighters for their work battling blazes in areas where they had broken out this year.
But the situation could change quickly, SMHI meteorologist Linus Karlsson told Aftonbladet.
"If we were to get a high pressure band and a lot of sun later in July or August, there is a risk that we will again get a risk of wildfires," he said.
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