1. Ulf Kristersson stays on as prime minister
Ulf Kristersson may still feel that he can form a government despite not having a majority.
Normally, if the incumbent intends to carry on with the exact same coalition dynamics as before, their mandate is tested in a mandatory confirmation vote held no earlier than September 29th. This takes place the day after the newly elected parliament convenes and a new speaker of parliament is chosen.
However, Kristersson has promised the Sweden Democrats a place in government if the right-wing bloc wins.
In a scenario where a prime minister wishes to govern alongside a new constellation of parties, the standard practice is that they tender their resignation to undergo a fresh confirmation vote in parliament.
This is then mainly a formality. As long as fewer than half of the 349 MPs vote against him, the prime minister is re-elected. He then stays in office and can form a government. This is unlikely to happen, at least in the initial vote.
2. Ulf Kristersson resigns as prime minister
If Kristersson concludes that he and his government have lost the election, he will announce his resignation.
At that point, the sitting speaker can immediately trigger the post-election procedure and hold consultation rounds (known as talmansrunda in Swedish) with party leaders.
Once parliament has elected a new speaker – or re-elected the incumbent – they take over the process and present a proposed candidate for prime minister to parliament.
The new parliament votes on the speaker's nominee, likely Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats, some time after convening on September 28th. If fewer than half vote against the nominee, the nomination is approved.
3. Parliament rejects the candidate
In the vote in either of the options above, more than half of parliament's MPs vote against the candidate.
In this case, the speaker must initiate talks with party leaders, and put forward a new candidate for parliament to vote on.
If fewer than half of MPs vote no, the candidate passes.
But if more than half vote no, they are again rejected.
The speaker has four attempts to put a candidate to a vote in the chamber. If all those attempts fail, a new election is triggered.
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