Sweden's Centre Party is a strange beast, and often misunderstood from afar.
Because it's not really a centrist party in a true sense; it's an ultra-liberal party that believes both in low taxes and a liberal immigration policy, tagged onto an agrarian party that looks after the interests of farmers and forest owners.
It agrees violently with the left bloc about some things – chiefly immigration, though its priority has historically been labour immigration rather than asylum. It disagrees with them equally violently about other things (pretty much everything about how to run the economy). With the right-wing bloc, the reverse is true: passionate agreement about economic policy, and passionate disagreement about immigration.
Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist encapsulates the party's current spirit: she grew up in rural Jämtland, but then pursued a career in business, starting as a McKinsey consultant and is a former president of the Swedish Venture Capital Association. Seen from this perspective, the modern Centre Party's recipe of easy labour immigration and low taxes are not a left-right mish-mash, but a coherent agenda.
This is why the Centre Party was thrilled by Christian Democrat leader Ebba Busch's famous flirts with Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson. It was never clear whether Busch was serious, but it boosted Thand Ringqvist: here was a chance for her to build a government that took the hard edges off immigration policy, while both the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats and the tax'em and spend-it Left Party were kept in their boxes (and away from ministerial office).
But it was not to be: this option simply didn't get enough support in the election. It's a mathematical impossibility.
Which leaves Thand Ringvist fending off suitors.
Ulf Kristersson was quick out of the blocks. He didn't have time for flirting – he has gone in straight in with an indecent proposal. Like that guy from Love Actually, he is standing outside Thand Ringquist's door with a solid argument for why she should choose him and ditch his rival.
And Ulf has some pretty decent arguments lined up. They are natural bedfellows: they both believe in lower taxes, in free enterprise, in full and enthusiastic membership of the EU and Nato. What's not to like?
Well, plenty actually. Ulf comes as a package with the Sweden Democrats and Jimmie Åkesson. That's Elisabeth's red line: she has said clearly that she wouldn't support any government dependent on the Sweden Democrats – a line that won her support from many former Moderate and Liberal voters that dislike the far-right.
Which leaves her with Magdalena Andersson – and with her the Greens and the Left Party of Nooshi Dadgostar. Nooshi has insisted she won't support a government unless her party gets ministerial jobs. Thand Ringqvist says she won't support any government in which the Left Party does get ministerial jobs.
Something will have to give. Dadgostar holds the cards: the Left Party had a fantastic election, while the Centre Party's performance was merely satisfactory. The voters would likely punish Thand Ringqvist's party if she sabotages government negotiations and plunges Sweden into new elections.
Her best bet to save face is to use negotiations to block attempts by the Left and Green parties to pursue left-wing economic policies: a block on significant tax increases, limited changes to the free school system and perhaps a liberalisation of labour immigration, especially the high-skilled kind. In this, the Social Democrat leadership may be happy to cooperate. In return, the Left Party could get a couple of marginal ministerial positions where, from Centre's perspective, they can cause no harm.
But having boxed itself in by ruling out working with the right-wing parties, the Centre Party has left itself in a terrible negotiating position. Being a kingmaker is usually a dream position for a party, yet for Thand Ringqvist right now it's more of a nightmare.
Here's where she should learn something from Ebba Busch: the flirt. Some well-aimed flirting at Kristersson, a hint (deniable but unmistakable) that she might be willing to break some long-held promises, could give her leverage. Something that would sow doubt on the left and give her the negotiating power she needs. It could cause uproar in parts of her party and beyond, but that could be helpful, and ultimately she would survive it.
Besides, what other options does she have? Because capitulating to Dadgostar would dash her credibility with her voters almost as much as surrendering to Jimmie Åkesson.
Comments (12)