Economists have been talking about a rebound for the Swedish economy, suggesting that the protracted recession is finally over. Household finances have been bolstered as interest rates dropped, and this year the government sweetened the pot considerably with a halved VAT on food, steep tax cuts on petrol and diesel, and half-price public transport passes.
However, for many, that relief could prove short-lived. Broad price increases, particularly across specific goods and services, have put the Riksbank on high alert, with interest rate hikes on the horizon.
On top of that, Sweden faces the prospect of a prolonged political stalemate without an effective government in place.
Here is the rundown of the biggest financial pressures lined up for this winter:
Fuel
On December 1st, the second phase of the temporary tax cuts on petrol and diesel is set to expire. Unless politicians choose – or manage – to extend the discount in time, petrol and diesel will become roughly 4 kronor more expensive per litre, pushing prices to around 22 and 27 kronor respectively based on current rates.
Compared to last winter's prices of around 15 kronor for petrol and 17 for diesel, filling up twice a month is estimated to cost roughly 800 and 1,200 kronor more per month.
Electricity
Electricity prices have already surged, and winter futures currently point to around 2 kronor per kilowatt-hour (including VAT) in the far south of Sweden, and just over 1.50 kronor in Svealand and northern Götaland (electricity grid area 3).
For a home in the southernmost Skåne region, that translates to roughly 1,700 kronor more per month compared to last winter.
In central Sweden, it means an extra 1,100 kronor per month, based on an annual consumption of 20,000 kWh.
In northern Sweden, changes remain small.
Mortgage interest rates
In early September, the Riksbank signalled that interest rate hikes are coming this winter – the only question is how many and when.
Experts suggest there is a strong case for two hikes this winter: one in November and another early next year.
That would make a 2 million kronor mortgage 10,000 kronor more expensive per year, or 830 kronor more per month (before tax deductions), compared to last winter.
Bus passes
The initiative to halve the cost of monthly public transport tickets is set to come to an end at the turn of the year.
Inflation
To top it all off, inflation – the general rise in consumer prices – appears to be on the way up again.
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