A new forecast report from Sweden's Migration Agency running from 2024 to 2027 predicts 3,000 fewer first-time work permit applications per year than previously forecast, dropping to 39,000 applications a year, from now until 2027.
"We've seen a downward trend when it comes to applications for work permits," Migration Agency director of planning Eric Ramstedt said. "The reason is probably the economic situation, and the higher work permit salary threshold which has been in place since November 1st last year."
On November 1st last year the minimum salary that applicants need to earn in order to be eligible for a Swedish work permit was raised to 80 percent of Sweden's median salary. At the time the median salary was 34,200 kronor a month, giving a salary threshold of 27,360 kronor.
But in an update on June 18th, 2024, the median salary was pushed up to 35,600 kronor.
This means work permit applicants (including both first-time applications and extensions) applying on this date or later need to earn a total of 28,480 kronor a month in order to qualify for a work permit.
The median salary is announced in Statistics Sweden’s yearly updates, so it changes every year.
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Salaries also need to be in line with industry standards or collective bargaining agreements to qualify for a work permit.
The Migration Agency's new report also states that the effects of the salary threshold and the economic situation on incoming work permit applications were "probably underestimated".
"When it comes to highly qualified labour, on the other hand, we've not seen a decrease over the course of this year," Ramstedt said.
The figures for work permit applications in 2026 may be slightly higher than the other years covered by the forecast. This is due to the Temporary Protection Directive, which allows Ukrainians fleeing the war in Ukraine to seek protection in Sweden without needing to apply for asylum or another permit, such as a work permit.
The Temporary Protection Directive is up for renewal in March 2026, and if it isn't renewed, the Migration Agency believes the number of first-time work permit applications in that year may be higher than usual as Ukrainians already in Sweden switch to other permits in order to stay.
Although the agency expects the number of first-time work permit applications to be lower than expected between now and 2027, it's raised its predictions for renewals over the same period, up by 2,000 in 2024, 1,000 in 2025 and 4,000 in 2026.
In good news for current work permit holders, it also expects the number of applications which are processed each year to increase "substantially" in 2026 and 2027, as the agency gains new staff.
In total, it expects to receive 81,000 applications for work permits (both first-time and renewals) this year, rising to 93,000 in 2025 before dropping to 90,000 in 2026. It expects to conclude 96,000 (some of which were submitted in previous years) in 2024, 106,000 in 2025 and 87,000 in 2026, before dropping to 45,000 in 2027.
This year, it expects 28,300 work permit applications to remain "open", with that figure dropping to 15,300 next year, before rising again to 18,300 in 2026 and 54,300 in 2027.
The number of citizenship applications is expected to remain stable over the forecast period (69,000 in 2024 and 65,000 in 2025, 2026 and 2027), although the agency has readjusted its forecast for concluded applications this year, down by 2,000 to 78,000.
In 2025 and 2026, however, this number is expected to rise to 87,000 per year – again due to increased staff at the agency – before dropping to 43,000 in 2027.
The agency also predicts the number of people choosing to leave the country voluntarily following a rejected asylum or other residence permit application to be higher than its earlier forecast from July 26th this year.
"We've increased the forecast for this year, on the back of the outcome so far during the year, and because our work to increase the number of people returning voluntarily is expected to have further effects," said Maria Mindhammar, the agency's director-general.
The agency now predicts that around 7,800 people will choose to return home voluntarily in 2024 – 900 more than its last forecast. Of those, it expects 4,900 to be rejected asylum applicants.
It predicts that the number of people returning home will decrease to 6,900 in 2025, although that's still 300 more than it predicted back in July.
The drop in 2025 is partly due to the fact that there have been fewer asylum applications, meaning fewer rejection decisions. The number of people returning home in 2026 is expected to rise again, due mostly to other types of permits, such as work permits, coming up for renewal and being rejected.
Emma Löfgren, Editor, The Local Sweden
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