We've made two widgets.
One is based on the poll of polls put together by the website pollofpolls.se, which includes all polls up until April 27th. This gives the Liberal Party just 2.7 percent of the vote, meaning it falls below the parliamentary threshold. If this is the result, the opposition parties have a fairly unassailable 18-seat majority.
The other is based on the Demoskop poll published on April 27th. This is only the second poll since the 2022 election where the Liberal Party have been above the parliamentary threshold, winning 4 percent of voters' support, and both of them are the two most recent polls by Demoskop. If this were to be the result (and it admittedly looks like an outlier) there would be a lot more to play for, with the opposition parties only holding an 8-seat majority.
You can double tap on any party you like to take it into the coalition section, and double tap it again to move it into the government section. If you double tap a party in the government section it goes back to the opposition.
You can also move mandates between parties to simulate different election results by first tapping on the party you want to lose a mandate, and then tapping on the party you want to give it to.
The word "coalition" is perhaps a little inaccurate here, as to be able to form a government in the Swedish parliament, a prospective prime minister has only to convince a majority of MPs in the parliament not to vote against their candidacy (it's called "negative parliamentarism").
So a "coalition" here only means a group of parties who are not voting "no" to a PM.
Anyway, play around with the parties and see what combinations can make a majority. Have fun!
Tell us in the comments about any interesting governments you come up with.
Liberals out: Poll of polls from April 27th
Liberals in: Demoskop poll from April 27th
Stumbling blocks for the blocs
Left and Centre deadlock
The Left Party has said it will not allow a government that it is not itself a part of. The Centre Party has said that it will not allow a government that includes the Left Party. This deadlock is the big headache for Magdalena Andersson. On the face of it, it makes it impossible for her to form a government with the current opposition parties.
If she tries to rule with just the backing of the Left Party and the Green Party, she is short three seats in the first widget, and short six seats in the second. If she tries to rule with just the backing of the Centre Party and the Green Party, she is short eight seats short in first widget and ten seats in the second.
A good election result could, however, open up one or both of these possibilities for Andersson. At the end of February, a poll by Indikator Opinion gave the Social Democrats, Left Party and Green Party their own majority.
It is also possible that faced with the prospect of failed negotiations and a new election, one or other of the two parties will fold.
But if neither of these things come to pass Andersson could be in trouble.
The Centre Party's refusal to rule with the Sweden Democrats
Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist at the end of January said that she would "not support a government that relies on the support of the Sweden Democrats", restating the red line established by her predecessor Annie Lööf.
If she were to drop this red line, perhaps after Andersson has failed for a month or more to form a government, the whole calculus changes. With Centre on board, Ulf Kristersson would have a three-seat majority according to the first widget and a six-seat majority according to the second.
The Moderate Party and Social Democrats' unwillingness to form a grand coalition
Germany, Denmark and Finland have all over the past 15 years had so-called "grand coalitions" combining the Social Democrats and the traditional ruling party of the centre-right, but this possibility is rarely seen as realistic in Sweden.
If they overcame their antipathy to this solution, the Moderates and the Social Democrats would alone enjoy a 12-seat majority in the first widget and a two-seat majority in the second.
Other options?
There are a lot of other wildcard scenarios. Might Magdalena Andersson win over the Liberal Party, whose 14 seats in the second widget would easily allow her to form a government with Centre and the Green Party?
Or could she form a government with the Christian Democrats, whose leader Ebba Busch has flirted with cooperating with the Social Democrats? If the Liberals are out, this would give her the mandates to form a new government. But would the Christian Democrats and Green Party ever agree on nuclear power and wind?
Were the Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats to team up (as some prominent Sweden Democrats have suggested in the past), Andersson would again have a comfortable majority in both scenarios.
A lot will depend on how clear the result is and whether the apparent deadlock between the opposition parties is as insoluble as it looks.
Once again, please tell us in the comments about which coalition you think is most likely.
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