Sweden on November 1st, 2023, raised its work permit salary threshold from around 13,000 kronor a month to 80 percent of the median salary, which currently sits at 28,480 kronor a month.
The measure was opposed by the Confederation of Swedish Industry, which warned it would put a brake on economic growth by worsening labour shortages, and has also put strain on lower paid work permit holders living in Sweden, forcing some to leave the country.
An analysis by the Swedish Migration Agency, published exactly a year after the measure came into force, found that the share of work permit applications rejected had increased slightly from 27 percent in the ten months before the measure was brought in to 35 percent in the ten months afterwards – an increase of 8 percentage points.
So far the change has had only a mild impact on those extending their work permits, with the share of extension applications rejected increasing just 2 points from 4 percent to 6 percent.
The agency found that the impact of the higher threshold on high skilled labour was "small or insignificant", with the share of first time applications rejected increasing from 3 percent to 4 percent between the two periods, an increase of just one percentage point.
At the same time the number of work permit applications for high skilled workers received by the agency actually increased from 19,162 to 19,409.
When it comes to the number of work permits actually issued, however, there does seem to have been more of an impact.
The Local has done its own analysis, based on statistics published on the Migration Agency's website, which compared the ten months between November 1st 2023 and September 2024 to the same period in 2022 and 2023.
We found that the number of first time work permits issued by the agency fell by about 32 percent in the 11 months after the new law was brought in, compared to the same November to September period in 2022 and 2023.
The biggest reduction, of 56 percent, was for jobs requiring a "shorter education or introductory course", with 4,685 fewer work permits issued.
READ ALSO: Salary threshold had 'biggest impact' on cleaners and restaurant workers
How has the work permit threshold impacted the share of first time work permit applications rejected?
The Migration Agency analysis noted that there was a "very clear difference" in the share of rejections depending on the category of work permit, with applications from cleaning and restaurant staff seeing the biggest impact.
It found that the share of work permit applications rejected in the cleaning industry in the ten months after the threshold came into force had nearby doubled from 28 percent to 49 percent compared to the same period before, at the same time as the number of applications received had dropped from 1,515 to 906.
The share of rejections in the restaurant industry, meanwhile, increased from 34 percent to 46 percent, with the number of applications dropping from 3,987 to 2,878.
The impact on applications from high-skilled workers, was, however, "very little or insignificant", the agency found, with the share of applications rejected increasing from 3 percent to 4 percent between the two periods.
The high-skilled labour category includes senior executives, workers in jobs requiring a graduate degree, and workers in jobs requiring a higher degree.
How has the work permit threshold impacted the share of work permit extensions rejected?
So far the new minimum salary has only had a small impact on those extending their work permits, with the share of extension applications rejected increasing by just 2 points between the two periods, from 4 percent to 6 percent.
Most work permits issued in the eleven months of 2023 before the higher requirement came into force will only come up for renewal in 2025, the agency explained. Of these, 21 percent have a salary below 80 percent of the current median salary, meaning they are likely to be rejected if they seek extension.
"It is only next year, when these extension applications will be tried, that the effect of the salary requirement can be seen," the agency wrote.
How has the work permit threshold impacted the number of permits issued?
The Local carried out its own analysis of the number of work permits issued, comparing the eleven months between November 1st 2023 and September 2024 to the same period in 2022 and 2023.
We found a sharp drop in the number of applications granted for jobs which only require a "short, introductory education", which includes restaurant workers, cleaners, and health and elderly care assistants.
There was also a decline in the number of work permits issued for roles which require a higher academic degree.
The decline in the number of work permit extensions granted was less dramatic, with the number granted falling only 6 percent over the period.
How has the work permit threshold changed the number of Indian citizens being granted work permits?
The Local reported in August that in the first half of 2024, more Indian citizens departed from Sweden than arrived to work in the country for the first time in at least 26 years, which some observers speculated may be in part due to the higher work permit threshold.
The number of first-time work permits issued to Indian citizens fell to 2,895 in the eleven months between November 2023 and the end of September 2024, from 4,030 in the same period in 2022 and 2023.
How does the Migration Agency expect the threshold to impact the number of work permits granted in the coming years?
A government inquiry into raising the threshold further to the median salary, which is currently 35,600 kronor, proposed that the change come into force in June 2025.
In its analysis, the Migration Agency predicts that this further rise in the minimum salary would "only generate a small impact" on the number of work permits rejected.
Of the people currently living in Sweden on a work permit, only 15 percent, or 4,500 people, have a salary that sits between the current salary threshold of 80 percent of the median salary and the proposed new median salary threshold, it pointed out.
The majority of people living on work permits, 59 percent, already have a salary above the median salary, it explained, while 21 percent already have a salary under 80 percent of the median salary, meaning they stand to have an extension rejected if they apply for one regardless of whether the government pushes ahead with the new law.
In the Migration Agency's latest forecast, from October, it said that it expected the number of work permit applications received in 2024 (both first time and extensions) to be marginally lower than the number it received in 2023, falling from about 91,000 in 2023 as a whole to 81,000 this year.
The agency expects the number of work permit applications to climb next year, however, largely thanks to Ukrainians living in Sweden under the EU's Temporary Protection Directive applying instead for work permits. The agency expects the number of applications to hit 93,000 in 2025 before dropping to 90,000 in 2026.
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