IN NUMBERS: Swedish Migration Agency presents new forecast for 2023

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IN NUMBERS: Swedish Migration Agency presents new forecast for 2023
The Swedish Migration Agency has released its latest forecast for 2023. Photo: Marcus Ericsson/TT

How many people are expected to apply for work permits, citizenship and asylum in Sweden this year? A new report by the Migration Agency reveals its estimates.


The latest forecast by the Migration Agency predicts that around 16,000 people will apply for asylum in Sweden in 2023. That’s a decrease of 2,000 compared to last year.

“In the last few years we’ve seen that a smaller and smaller number of asylum seekers in Europe make their way to Sweden,” said Migration Agency officer Annika Gottberg in a statement.

The agency believes the number will fall by 3,000 applicants next year.


Sweden has tightened its migration laws in recent years, and the government last month announced plans to launch an international campaign to discourage people to seek asylum in Sweden. Here’s The Local’s guide to the legislative changes in the pipeline.

The Migration Agency also writes that it believes around 15,000 people fleeing Russia's war on Ukraine will seek protection in Sweden this year. However, the total figure could land on anything between 8,000 and 100,000, it writes, depending on how the war develops.

Around 80,000 people are expected to apply for Swedish citizenship in 2023, and the agency expects to receive around 60,000 first-time applications for work permits (this figure also includes for example family members of work permit applicants and job seekers).

It expects to receive 27,000 permit applications for studies in Sweden.

The agency, which has been criticised for long waiting times (which The Local has covered extensively), expects to process 111,000 work permit-related applications in 2023, 85,000 citizenship applications and 31,000 applications from students.

Last month it said it had managed to bring the median waiting time for citizenship down from 330 days in 2021 to 256 days in 2022.


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